2025-12-26 03:50:57

#数字资产市场动态 Ethereum's "Deflation" Story Needs to Be Rewritten

While the market is still focused on options and sentiment, a set of data quietly changes the game—Ethereum's net supply increased by 18,614 ETH over the past week, with the annualized growth rate shifting from negative to positive at 0.8%.

Many haven't realized what this means: the once core investment logic that "ETH is a deflationary asset" is now beginning to waver.

The real issue isn't a sudden explosion in issuance, but rather the engine of burning slowing down.

**Upgrades Have Become Variables**

After the completion of EIP-4844, transactions are flowing massively to Layer 2 solutions. Mainnet congestion has disappeared, and Gas fees have plummeted. This should be a good thing. But the consequence is—EIP-1559's burn rate also declines accordingly. Meanwhile, staking continues to produce about 2700 ETH daily.

Simple math: issuance > burning. Deflation turns into slight inflation.

This actually exposes a long-standing truth—that Ethereum's "deflationary characteristic" has never been independent; it is entirely tied to high network usage and high Gas fees. The better the scalability, the more comfortable the experience, the more it weakens the narrative that has been hyped up so vigorously.

**Triple Impact in the Short, Medium, and Long Term**

In the short term, this is a sentiment-based negative, which will weaken Ethereum's relative capital attraction compared to Bitcoin.

In the medium term, there is pressure to shift the narrative. From the label of "deflationary asset" to a new logic of "settlement layer + ecosystem revenue," the valuation foundation needs to be rebuilt.

The most challenging issue is the long-term question: without relying on high Gas fees, can Ethereum establish new value capture mechanisms?

This isn't the end for Ethereum. Instead, it enters a phase where it must rewrite its own story. Will it become more like a "digital bond" or the "underlying layer for global financial settlement"? The answer will determine its future trajectory.

ETH1.29%

BTC1.53%

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BearMarketSunriser

· 2h ago

Wait, is the deflation story falling apart? This is awkward now. It's the expansion causing the trouble again. Good things turn bad; when gas fees drop, burning also decreases. This logic is a bit crazy. So what's the point of buying ETH now? Relying on emotions?

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MoonWaterDroplets

· 2h ago

Wait, the drop in Gas fees actually leads to more inflation? That logic is really clever. The more successful the scaling, the more it hurts itself, right?

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ResearchChadButBroke

· 2h ago

Oh no, the deflation story falling apart is indeed a bit embarrassing... I've always said that scaling is a double-edged sword.

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RugpullAlertOfficer

· 2h ago

Wait, does expanding capacity actually eliminate deflation? How do you calculate this buy and sell? The narrative collapsing is indeed uncomfortable, but why not think about ecosystem revenue? High gas kills high gas—that's a pretty clever trick.

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GateUser-bd883c58

· 2h ago

Expanding capacity instead cuts off burning, this reversal is quite harsh. Where's the promised deflation? It ended up being ruined by their own upgrade. ETH needs to think clearly about who it is; it can't rely on the false premise of high gas fees to sustain itself. This is the real narrative shift; it depends on who can tell a new story.

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