#通货膨胀 The Fed's move is indeed interesting—cutting rates as expected, but the dot plot shows only one rate hike next year, while the market is betting on two. This divergence reflects a tug-of-war over inflation expectations.

Powell's statements are very important: inflation remains slightly high, with risks tilted to the upside. This means that even rate cuts are cautious, and the upcoming pace will depend entirely on labor market data. Morgan Stanley was frank—stronger growth combined with stubborn inflation means the Fed's rate cuts will be smaller than market pricing, and the risk of US debt being overvalued is not small.

From a follow-trade perspective, this is a key signal transition period. The previous strategy of earning interest through preemptive rate cuts needs to be re-evaluated, and traders sensitive to US debt and the dollar will become more cautious. I am adjusting my position weights—hedge funds may reduce their holdings, while traders focused on fundamentals and quick responses to labor data are actually worth increasing their positions and tracking.

Bitcoin once surged to 94,000 and then pulled back, essentially reflecting the market digesting this "dove with hawk" mixed signal. Short-term volatility is high, but the trend needs new data for confirmation. In this environment, stop-losses should be set more strictly, and there is little room to adjust risk appetite.