2025-12-26 08:25:10

A recent global prediction platform has caused a stir. To date, $65 million has been allocated here in a large-scale "market vote"—the theme revolves around the Federal Reserve's policy direction in January next year.

The data is quite one-sided: 88% of the funds bet that the Fed will not cut interest rates, with only 11% expecting a 25 basis point cut. This is not just a simple difference of opinion but a result of real money voting. When wallets start to speak, this consensus appears especially credible.

Why is the market so confident? Several core factors are at play: inflation remains a concern, the employment market stays hot, and recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have sent clear signals to the market. With these factors stacking up, expectations for rate cuts have cooled.

Interestingly, this prediction mechanism itself is quite persuasive. Participants must put real money on the line for their judgments—correct guesses profit, wrong guesses lose money. No one would casually make a knowingly incorrect prediction. Because of this, when large amounts of capital are pointing in the same direction, the underlying logic deserves serious consideration.

From a technical perspective, the movement of risk assets like BTC will also be influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations. If this market consensus proves true, maintaining a high-interest environment will likely remain the norm in the short term. Conversely, an unexpected rate cut could bring new upward opportunities for risk assets. The market is using real funds to hedge against this uncertainty.

BTC1.52%

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ImaginaryWhale

· 4h ago

88% of the funds are not optimistic about interest rate cuts. This consensus is a bit scary. Do you feel that the opportunity for contrarian operation has arrived? By the way, this kind of real-money voting method is indeed much better than just talking trash; the wallet won't lie. Is the Federal Reserve really that hawkish, or has the market collectively been silenced... Holding coins during high-interest-rate environmental periods is really uncomfortable, but at least it's better than being crushed by a sharp decline. The real test will come in January. Those betting on the 88% to fail are probably also stockpiling bullets.

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GasGrillMaster

· 4h ago

Wallet tells the truth, 88% of the funds are betting on no rate cuts... This market consensus really feels a bit strong this time --- Damn, we're going to be surrounded by high interest rates until next year. How can BTC turn around in the short term? --- This mechanism of the prediction platform is amazing; with real money on the line, no one dares to talk nonsense. --- Only 11% chance of a rate cut? Then I might as well just hold, wait for the opportunity. --- Inflation and employment are two old stubborn problems; the Fed won't loosen its stance unless they are solved. --- A $650 million bet, what does this scale indicate... The market has known this for a long time. --- The hawks are about to push another wave. The high-interest-rate environment is really tough; risk assets are being exploited while lying down. --- It feels like the market's judgment this year is surprisingly consistent; it's a bit strange. --- 88% of the funds point in the same direction? I feel like something's about to go wrong... --- If there's no rate cut, BTC will have to keep bottoming out. How do we play this game? --- The market is so confident... What if an unexpected wave comes? What's there to fear in a small loss?

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IronHeadMiner

· 4h ago

88% of the funds say no to rate cuts. This consensus is a bit scary; it feels like everyone is betting against it, and that's when the opportunity comes. Wallet voting is indeed more credible than just talking tough, but such a one-sided trend doesn't feel quite right; it seems like there's a trap. The probability of a rate cut has been hammered down to 11%. Truly, the Fed is determined to fight inflation this time. Sixty-five million dollars are stacked on this prediction. If there’s an unexpected rate cut in January, these people will be crying their eyes out. The anti-market operators in the crypto space are itching to act. They’re waiting for everyone to turn bearish before bouncing back. This mechanism is quite brutal; no one is foolish enough to lose money by blindly predicting, so the data’s credibility is indeed high. If high interest rates persist, BTC and Ethereum won't be able to rally in the short term; we’ll have to wait for a policy turning point.

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