Hainan's recent border closure benefits seem to favor various industries, but the truly noteworthy ones are the leading enterprises. Retail investors are easily swayed by the hype, buying a bunch of small, insignificant stocks, and end up with no gains.

Let's start with the most direct sector: duty-free retail. China Duty Free(601888) holds over 85% of the market share in Hainan's offshore duty-free sales, with core assets like Sanya International Duty-Free City in hand. The key point is that after the border closure, the zero-tariff policy will directly cut procurement costs by over 30%, increasing gross profit margins by 5-10 percentage points. Assuming a 15% corporate income tax rate, this could save 300-500 million RMB annually. By 2026, revenue in Hainan is expected to reach 60-65 billion RMB, with net profit growth potentially between 40-55%. These figures are straightforward and don’t require over-interpretation.

Haitong Group(603069) has an interesting approach—initially focused on road passenger transport, now leveraging its passenger network to divert traffic to duty-free shops, and planning to acquire Hailv Duty-Free. Small-cap, highly flexible stocks like these are likely to attract institutional attention.

Hainan Development(002163) is backed by state-owned capital(holding 29%), with stakes in duty-free product groups. Its glass curtain wall business can generate synergy with duty-free shops and airport construction. The injection of duty-free assets has been anticipated for some time—this is essentially an option.

In transportation and logistics—no need to elaborate—both passenger flow and freight volume are set to explode. The Qiongzhou Strait is a critical route, with Haizhou Co.(002320) monopolizing ferry transportation, holding nearly 90% market share. Post-border closure, demand will surge, pushing up freight volume and prices. By 2026, net profit growth could reach 70-90%. This is the most solid logic.

Hainan Airport(600515) controls three major airports—Haikou Meilan, Sanya Phoenix, and Qionghai Boao—and has stakes in five offshore duty-free shops, accounting for about 16% of the island’s duty-free sales. International flight routes are increasing, and both passenger numbers and non-aviation revenue(duty-free rent) will grow simultaneously.

Hainan HNA Group(600221) is the main airline hub in Hainan. More international routes mean increased passenger and cargo traffic, plus advantages in duty-free procurement of aircraft materials and jet fuel with zero tariffs, significantly improving cost efficiency.

Hainan Expressway(000886) is responsible for the island-wide highway expansion, with additional land reserves of thousands of acres. Post-border closure, asset appreciation, toll revenue, and land values are all expected to rise.

In infrastructure and local industries, Hainan Ruize(002596) is a leading producer of ready-mixed concrete, with over 40% market share in Sanya. Post-border closure, infrastructure demand will boost orders—no surprises there.

Hainan Rubber(601118) covers the entire natural rubber industry chain. After processing value addition, products can be exported to the mainland tariff-free, opening up market space.

Kangzhi Pharmaceutical(300086) is doing licensed drug and medical device distribution in the Lecheng Pilot Zone. The story here is more innovative—post-border closure, the "clinical exemption" channels will expand, and direct overseas procurement combined with bonded warehouses can save significant taxes. By 2026, licensed drug and device revenue could double.

Among these stocks, the most certain are duty-free retail and transportation logistics—the logic is clear, and the data is convincing. Others have potential, but are less solid than these two sectors.