Recently, a viewpoint about the precious metals market has sparked a lot of reflection. Some analysts predict that by 2026, gold could rise to $10,000 and silver to $200. This forecast indeed seems shockingly aggressive.

Based on the current gold price of around $4,500, that would require more than doubling. Not to mention the increase in silver. This far exceeds the expectations of conservative Wall Street analysts.

Why such a bold judgment? The key is not just inflation itself but points to something deeper—the global trust in the monetary system is undergoing change.

Traditionally, gold has been regarded as a commodity, quietly lying within the realm of bulk commodities. But now its role is transforming. It is becoming a geopolitical safe-haven asset, a defensive asset to hedge against sovereign credit risk. When the US dollar is used as a weapon, central banks and sovereign wealth funds around the world are beginning to rethink their asset allocations. Imagine if these large institutions truly upgrade gold from a marginal holding to a core strategic asset, the scale of capital inflow could be terrifying.

The issue lies on the supply side. Global gold mining has long entered a plateau of growth, with production basically stable. This creates a classic supply-demand mismatch: potential demand could surge like a tsunami, while production is stuck.

This logic may seem extreme, but the direction it points to is worth pondering. Against the backdrop of global decentralization and order restructuring, gold is being redefined—it has become an indicator of the pressure on the global credit system.

Here’s an interesting parallel. Bitcoin has been vying for the title of "digital gold," and the evolving role of gold in this era actually tells the same story: confidence in the traditional centralized monetary system is wavering. When sovereign credit is uncertain, capital naturally seeks out those "non-sovereign" stores of value.

No matter how far this prediction ultimately goes, it gives us an angle to view the future of the market—a new era of credit system restructuring, where the definitions of safe assets and hedging assets are being rewritten.