2025-12-26 10:24:25

Yesterday, the crypto market experienced a historic options expiration day. Over $28 billion in positions were closed smoothly—so smoothly that it was somewhat surprising—and Bitcoin and Ethereum didn't surge significantly after the expiration.

The data is quite interesting. The Bitcoin Put/Call ratio is only 0.35, and Ethereum's is 0.45, indicating that the vast majority of market participants are betting on a rise. The maximum pain point is set at 95,000, which seems quite optimistic. But this actually exposes a problem: a high call option volume doesn't necessarily mean an immediate rise, often indicating that sellers and large institutions' strategies are working.

How are they doing it? By employing "selling options" strategies, they openly collect large premiums during the sluggish Q4 sentiment. The real key moves happen before expiration—block trades suddenly surge as institutions "roll over" positions, shifting risk to future contracts. Particularly, they are shifting towards March quarterly options.

Now, the market's position distribution is very clear: over 30% is concentrated in March next year, and all are out-of-the-money call options. Simply put, big funds are betting on whether a breakout can occur in Q1.

Therefore, the calm on expiration day is no coincidence. The actual "selling pressure" and "hedge adjustments" were completed through block trades before expiration. What remains is a seemingly optimistic but directionally uncertain situation.

What should we focus on next? The extremely low Put/Call ratio combined with the accumulation of out-of-the-money call options reflects a state of extreme greed in the market, and also the most concentrated risk period. The real showdown window is in Q1 next year—if Bitcoin cannot break through 95,000, the massive pile of call options could turn into downward fuel.

In the current environment, continued high-uncertainty volatility is highly probable. Compared to blindly increasing positions, a "seller's strategy" might be more prudent. Market money always moves faster than news; the key is to calmly observe on-chain dynamics and institutional position changes to find genuine signals of the market's direction.

BTC1.5%

ETH1.7%

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ProofOfNothing

· 3h ago

Really? 28 billion just slipped away so calmly? I guessed it early. Institutions' moves this time are still ruthless, collecting premiums very happily. The March showdown, we'll see if 95k breaks then and who wins. With so many out-of-the-money options piled up, either a爆 or a崩, nothing in between. I'm still on the sidelines, don't follow the herd to add positions, wait for on-chain data. The sellers are really much smarter than we thought. Wait, the Put/Call ratio is only 0.35, this greed level is a bit scary. Looks optimistic but the direction is unclear, this sentence is spot on. The surge in block trades, institutions have already quietly escaped. Who can break through 95k in Q1 of March depends on this wave, it's not a small issue.

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RooftopVIP

· 3h ago

Basically, the big players are taking the retail investors' premium, right? The 28 billion liquidation didn't cause a rise; instead, it's the darkest moment. Institutions are playing it perfectly, shifting the risk to March in advance. If 95k can't be broken, then those options really could cause a sell-off. I still think adding positions at this level is too risky; better to wait and see. Seller strategies are indeed more stable than reckless actions, but the key is to keep an eye on on-chain data. This greed index is off the charts; something's bound to happen.

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Fren_Not_Food

· 3h ago

The sellers have won again. What are we still talking about? Can we really make a move in March? High-risk areas with many people, I am now lying flat and observing. 280 billion in liquidations so calmly, which is even more frightening... big funds must have already run away. So many out-of-the-money options piled up, it feels like a trap waiting for people to jump in. This round of seller strategies is a huge win, retail investors can keep taking the bait. Whether 95k breaks or not depends on Q1, anyway I dare not chase highs. It feels like the market is playing psychological warfare with us; calmness is the most terrifying.

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BlockchainFoodie

· 3h ago

ngl this put/call ratio setup lowkey reminds me of a poorly balanced recipe — everyone's betting on the same flavor profile and the market makers just collected their premium like they're plating a michelin dish... the real question is who's holding the bag when march rolls around

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FlatTax

· 3h ago

Wait, after 28 billion liquidations, the price didn't rise? This is the most terrifying signal. The institution's move is perfect; once they are full on premiums, they start betting on shorting expectations. Put/Call ratio is only 0.35? Is the market committing suicide? It's all leveraged gamblers. Can those out-of-the-money calls from March really explode? It feels like they are just giving bullets to the shorts. Calmly absorbing the selling pressure, big players are really ruthless. If it can't break through 95k, it's game over? Then the current optimism is really fragile. Looking at on-chain activity, this is well said. News always deceives, data is the real truth.

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