2025-12-31 15:20:57

从历史数据来看，1月往往是个有意思的月份。以太坊在过去1月的平均回报率达到了20.63%，这个数字相当亮眼。相比之下，比特币的1月平均回报率是3.81%，虽然也是正收益，但涨幅明显温和一些。

这背后反映了什么？简单说，就是市场存在明显的季节性规律。以太坊的强势表现特别值得关注——这种历史性的上涨趋势可能预示着新年伊始会有一波配置热情。投资者通常在年初会重新调整策略，而历史数据往往能给出一些线索。

BTC、ETH、SOL这些主流币种的表现分化，也提醒我们不同资产的季节性特征并不一致。想抄底或者布局的人，不妨参考这些历史规律，但记住——过去的表现不代表未来一定重演。

ETH0,13%

BTC-1,12%

SOL-1,06%

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PaperHandSister

· 19h ago

ETH's return of over 20 points sounds impressive, but I still have my doubts... Has it always been like this in previous years? This year's market seems different. --- So basically, it's about betting on seasonality. The problem is, whether this approach is reliable or not is really hard to say. --- BTC only 3.81%? Why does it feel like ETH is so strong? Is it because ETH's volatility is inherently higher? --- Historical data looks good, but when it comes to actually holding it... Hehe, has anyone made money from this? --- If you ask me, just stop overthinking it. Who can really predict whether January will go up or down? It's better to just watch market sentiment. --- Wait, what is this average over how many years? If the sample size is too small, then it's just nonsense. --- I just want to know how this 20.63% was calculated. It feels a bit off.

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SatoshiHeir

· 19h ago

It should be pointed out that this set of seasonal arguments has fundamental flaws. On-chain data shows that statistical samples of less than 20 years cannot prove any inevitability of patterns—you're using survivor bias to brainwash yourself.

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BoredRiceBall

· 19h ago

20.63%... Wow, these numbers are so dazzling I can barely see. Is it real or fake? ETH is so strong, I need to reevaluate my holdings. Seasonal patterns sound good, but I don't know if they'll continue to cooperate this year. BTC is always so stable, it's a bit boring haha. Past data can only be referenced; who can guarantee it will repeat this year? I just want to know if jumping in now will just get me caught in a trap again. How about the SOL track? Is anyone following? Wait, if historical patterns are so useful, why did so many people lose money before? This month's effect is actually quite interesting. Maybe I'll keep betting on January next year.

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AirdropworkerZhang

· 19h ago

Here comes more historical data to scare people. I believed in this seasonal pattern back in January last year, but I got trapped. ETH's growth is so impressive, why is it still sideways this year? The pattern has probably been broken. History doesn't repeat but it rhymes. If you're not careful, you'll become the bagholder. Doubling in January? That sounds like a beautiful lie to me. Seasonality, allocation enthusiasm... honestly, it's all about market sentiment. Data has never been completely reliable. This time they're trying to convince me to buy the dip again. Stay alert. BTC remains steady as an old dog, ETH is doing its thing. The gap between them is quite a distance.

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GateUser-ccc36bc5

· 19h ago

Damn, ETH averages over 20 points increase per month? Why didn't I catch this wave, I'm so frustrated. BTC only increased by 3.8, which is really a bit disappointing. Is the gap really this big? Seasonal patterns sound good, but I still doubt whether it can be repeated this time. Historical data looks promising, but can the current market still follow the usual pattern... But since we're talking about it, maybe I'll buy some ETH at the beginning of the month to test the waters? Don't just be paper wealth again, the key is to look at the actual market行情.

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