Market judgment is actually very simple: follow the moving averages, confirm the main trend, and never rely on guesses.

Many people ask me if 2025 will be a bull market. To be honest, I’m not interested in questions like that. The answer to bull or bear markets is not in predictions but in charts.

Moving averages themselves are lagging indicators. What does that mean? It means that for the bull or bear trend to become truly clear, you need to wait until the moving average patterns align smoothly. Looking at Bitcoin now, it has broken below all moving averages—under this pattern, the stance is very clear: bearish.

So when will I change my stance? Three clear conditions must all be met: the moving averages are realigned neatly, the price breaks through a key resistance level, and then the moving averages collectively turn upward to form a bullish divergence. That’s the real signal of trend reversal. Without these signs, talking about a bull market is just empty talk.

Recently, I heard someone say, "The US side is easing up, a bull market is coming soon." Honestly, I’m not much affected by such news. Liquidity easing is one thing; market trend is another. If it were that straightforward, the market would have already surged. The key is that as long as a clear bullish pattern emerges and the signals are in front of us, I will naturally follow. Currently, there’s no significant movement in the market, and talking about policy catalysts for a bull market is just armchair strategizing.

For me, trading boils down to two levels: the main trend is only judged by moving averages and volume; most profits come from here. Short-term, I use MACD combined with short-cycle moving averages for light position testing, but I will never invert the importance.

I don’t try to guess the top or the bottom. I only wait for signals to appear. That’s what I call a prudent way to live. Next, I will continue to follow market signals to analyze trends and short-term opportunities. Interested friends are welcome to stay tuned.