2025 is coming to an end, and the global financial markets are entering the year-end closing phase.

This year, the MSCI Global Index recorded an approximate 21% annual increase, marking the fastest growth in the past six years. The two main engines supporting this rally are evident: first, the Federal Reserve's three rate cuts this year, which kept the interest rate range stable at 3.5%-3.75%, providing continuous liquidity to the market; second, the worldwide AI investment boom, injecting strong momentum into the real economy.

Asian stock markets performed particularly well in this rally, potentially achieving a third consecutive year of growth, making it the most impressive performance since 2017. However, investors are also aware that current market valuations are already high, and there are still many disagreements about the Fed's rate cut path in 2026, so the future trajectory is not guaranteed to be smooth. Nevertheless, market expectations for next year remain optimistic—generally believing that as long as the Federal Reserve maintains a moderate and accommodative stance, the stock market will have support for upward movement.

For the crypto market, this macro environment is like a double-edged sword.

On the positive side, the Fed's rate cuts directly reduce the opportunity cost of holding assets like BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies. In an environment of loose liquidity, long-term demand for Bitcoin is expected to be sustained.

But risks are also present. This strong rebound in the stock market could shake up capital allocation—investors may reallocate between traditional assets and cryptocurrencies. If stock valuations continue to rise, some speculative funds might withdraw from the crypto market to chase profits in stocks, which could directly suppress the short-term gains of mainstream coins like BTC and SOL.

Another uncertain factor is that if disagreements within the Federal Reserve over the pace of rate cuts intensify further in 2026, market volatility could be amplified, and investors' risk-averse sentiment might push up crypto asset fluctuations. In other words, Bitcoin's price volatility could be larger than expected.