The Final Shopping Sprint: Why These ETFs Are Positioned to Win This Weekend and Beyond

The last Saturday before Christmas just happened to be a golden opportunity — with 158.9 million shoppers hitting stores and websites, marking a 1.1% surge from 157.2 million last year. It’s the kind of saturday work quotes that Wall Street loves: real consumer activity translating to real earnings catalysts. For ETF investors, understanding what’s driving these holiday shoppers — and more importantly, which funds are best positioned to capture this momentum — could be the difference between a winning and flat portfolio heading into 2026.

The 2025 Consumer Paradox: Quality Over Quantity

Here’s the plot twist nobody saw coming: despite economic headwinds, consumers aren’t just spending more, they’re spending smarter. The latest market intelligence reveals a sophisticated shopper — one obsessed with meaningful purchases rather than chasing rock-bottom deals. The catch? While holiday sales are projected to cross the $1 trillion threshold this season, most of that growth is being driven by higher price tags, not increased consumer volume.

S&P Global Ratings forecasts U.S. holiday sales growing just 4% year-over-year in 2025, with actual consumer spending remaining relatively flat. Tariff pressures, inflation concerns, and a softer labor market are forcing households to be surgical with their budgets. It’s a tale of two economies — one thriving, one treading water.

Where the Real Opportunity Lies

The silver bullet for ETF holders? Trade-down traffic. High-income shoppers are increasingly gravitating toward value-focused mega-cap retailers like Walmart, Costco, and Amazon. These companies have the pricing power, supply chain efficiency, and omnichannel infrastructure to thrive even when the broader economy cools.

For 2026, analysts expect modest but resilient retail performance. Sales growth will likely decelerate, but we won’t see a collapse — meaning efficiency matters more than ever. The winners will be those with loyal customer bases, strong digital-to-physical integration, and the ability to command premium pricing. In short: the exact characteristics that dominate most broad-based retail ETF portfolios.

Four ETFs Ready to Capitalize on Holiday Momentum

VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) — The Diversified Play

With $248 million in assets, RTH tracks 26 of the world’s largest retailers. Its heavyweights tell the story: Amazon (19.53%), Walmart (11.79%), and Costco (8.06%). Year-to-date performance? +11.6%. At 35 basis points in annual fees, it’s a solid choice for investors wanting broad retail exposure without picking individual stocks. Last session volume hit 0.01 million shares.

ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) — The E-Commerce Explosion

If you believe the future of retail is digital, ONLN is your vehicle. Managing $179.17 billion in average market cap across 19 e-commerce powerhouses, the fund’s top trio is Amazon (23.35%), Alibaba (11.44%), and eBay (8.11%). The returns speak volumes: +31.9% year-to-date. Yes, the 58 basis point fee is higher, but the outperformance might justify it. Trading volume: 0.02 million shares.

Global X E-commerce ETF (EBIZ) — The International Angle

With $51 million in net assets, EBIZ provides exposure to 41 global e-commerce firms, including Expedia (6.10%), Shopify (5.57%), and Alibaba (4.87%). It’s the underdog pick — smaller fund size but +19.4% year-to-date gains. At 50 basis points annually, it fills a niche for investors wanting e-commerce exposure beyond the usual suspects. Volume last session: 0.01 million shares.

Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) — The Defensive Choice

When uncertainty looms, staples shine. FSTA’s $1.33 billion in assets covers 97 U.S. consumer staples stocks, with Walmart (14.48%), Costco (11.96%), and Procter & Gamble (10.05%) leading the charge. Year-to-date performance is modest at +2.4%, but that’s exactly what you’d expect from a defensive play in a year like this. The fee structure is aggressive at just 8 basis points. Trading volume: 0.19 million shares — the highest among the bunch.

The Bottom Line: Position Your Portfolio for the Final Quarter

Saturday work quotes aside, this holiday season’s consumer activity is a masterclass in how structural economic forces reshape market opportunities. The winners won’t be the flashiest retailers — they’ll be the ones with fortress balance sheets, customer loyalty, and the ability to move inventory efficiently.

For portfolio builders, that means tilting toward these four ETF options. Whether you want broad retail exposure (RTH), pure e-commerce growth (ONLN), global diversification (EBIZ), or defensive staples (FSTA), the tools are there. The question isn’t whether retail ETFs will benefit from holiday momentum — it’s which ETFs align with your risk tolerance and market outlook heading into 2026.