NuScale Power stock price plummets 55%: Is this a buying opportunity or a risk signal?

In the ups and downs of the capital markets, investors often swing between two extremes—either overly optimistic or deeply pessimistic. The recent three-month decline of NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) is a typical reflection of this emotional fluctuation. When this company, dedicated to developing small modular nuclear reactors, sees its stock halve, we need to ask a deeper question: what is hidden behind this buy signal?

Ancient Wisdom of Investment Psychology

When discussing this topic, one cannot ignore Benjamin Graham’s concept of “Mr. Market.” This legendary investor and Warren Buffett’s teacher used this metaphor to reveal the essence of the market: Mr. Market is like your business partner, sometimes exuberant and willing to pay any price for your business; other times, he is in a bad mood and might sell his shares to you at a bargain price.

Most of the time, Mr. Market oscillates between these two extremes. Truly wise investors do not try to predict Mr. Market’s mood but buy when he is pessimistic and sell when he is optimistic. This is the core logic of behavioral finance.

NuScale’s Real Situation: The Dual Risks of a Startup

To determine whether NuScale Power is worth investing in, one must look at it from two dimensions.

First is the company’s fundamentals. NuScale is a startup that has not yet achieved profitability, focused on developing a new nuclear technology—small modular reactors. These reactors have clear technical advantages: prefabricated in factories rather than constructed on-site, lower costs, shorter timelines, higher safety, and greater deployment flexibility. If the technology is feasible, the market potential is enormous.

But reality is harsh. NuScale has not yet completed a single commercial contract. The company’s current revenue comes from consulting services—providing technical advisory for the Romanian utility RoPower’s nuclear plant project. RoPower plans to adopt six NuScale reactors.

The key issue here is: the first commercial reactor delivery is expected around late 2026 or early 2027. And even then, everything remains uncertain—RoPower still needs to secure the necessary project financing.

Adding to the complexity, as early as the beginning of 2025, NuScale was telling investors that a final deal decision would be made in early 2026. Now, that timeline has been pushed back. Delays in large capital projects are common, but the problem is that NuScale’s entire future hinges almost entirely on this order. While other partnerships exist, they are far less clear-cut than the flagship RoPower project.

The Battle Between Investor Sentiment and Market Price

Second is the shift in market sentiment. A decline of over 50% in stock price indicates that investors have collectively turned pessimistic.

For conservative investors, this is a clear signal: avoid. Wait until NuScale achieves more commercial milestones before considering entry. The company is still in a life-or-death phase, with risks too high.

But for aggressive investors, the situation might be different. If you firmly believe in the long-term prospects of nuclear power (especially small modular reactors), then the current price decline creates a contrarian investment opportunity. This approach may seem irrational, but it precisely embodies true investment wisdom—remaining rational when others are despairing.

The key premise is: you must be fully confident that NuScale can survive the early stages of technological R&D and commercialization. There are no guarantees of certainty.

Final Investment Decision

The future of NuScale Power is full of uncertainties. From a fundamental perspective, the company needs to successfully advance its cooperation with RoPower and complete the construction and delivery of its first reactor. From a market sentiment perspective, the current pessimism creates potential opportunities for certain investors.

But in any case, this is not the choice for conservative investors. Only aggressive investors who truly understand the nuclear industry, believe in the modular reactor technology route, and are willing to endure long-term uncertainties should consider NuScale Power at this price level. Other investors’ wise choice is to wait and see.