Holiday Shopping Surge Opens Door for Retail ETFs—Key Opportunities Emerge Post-Super Saturday

This year’s holiday season delivered a powerful message to the market: consumers are still spending, and savvy investors can capitalize on it. A record 158.9 million shoppers hit stores and online platforms during Super Saturday—the final weekend before Christmas—marking a 1.1% jump from the previous year and surpassing 2022’s 158.5 million milestone, according to the National Retail Federation.

What makes this shopping event particularly noteworthy isn’t just the headline number. The real story lies in how consumers are spending, and which retailers are winning the traffic race. For exchange-traded fund investors, understanding these patterns could mean the difference between missing out and building positions in funds poised for steady returns.

The Two-Speed Consumer: Understanding What’s Really Happening

Behind the strong Super Saturday numbers sits a more nuanced reality: consumers are becoming increasingly selective. Data from CNBC shows that shoppers are prioritizing quality and meaningful purchases over bargain hunting—a shift that reflects both sophistication and caution in spending habits.

The macroeconomic backdrop tells why. The U.S. economy is experiencing what analysts call a “two-speed” dynamic, where overall activity persists even as household budgets tighten. Inflation, tariff-related pressures, and labor market weakness are real headwinds. Yet despite these challenges, holiday spending is expected to cross the $1 trillion threshold, driven largely by price increases rather than volume expansion.

S&P Global Ratings projects U.S. holiday retail sales (November-December) will grow 4% year-over-year in 2025, though consumer outlays themselves are likely to remain relatively flat. Weaker consumer confidence, tariff impacts, and macroeconomic uncertainty suggest modest growth rather than a boom.

Which Retailers (and ETFs) Thrive in This Environment?

The winners emerge clearly: mega-cap retailers like Walmart (WMT), Costco (COST), and Amazon (AMZN) are successfully capturing “trade-down” traffic—high-income shoppers seeking value. These companies possess the pricing power, loyalty programs, and operational efficiency to maintain margins even as volumes moderate.

For 2026, Fitch Ratings expects modestly positive U.S. retail sales, supported by a full year of tariff-related inflation and consumer staples growth, though discretionary spending may remain under pressure. This environment favors efficiency, scale, and omnichannel capabilities—precisely what the largest holdings in broad retail ETFs already offer.

Four ETFs to Watch: A Breakdown

For investors seeking exposure to resilient retailers and e-commerce leaders, these funds merit inclusion in a watchlist:

VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) offers broad exposure to 26 of the world’s largest retailers. With top holdings in AMZN (19.53%), WMT (11.79%), and COST (8.06%), this $248 million fund has climbed 11.6% year to date. Its 35 basis point fee structure is reasonable for diversified retail exposure. Recent trading volume averaged 0.01 million shares.

ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) delivers pure-play e-commerce exposure through 19 leading companies. Weighted toward AMZN (23.35%), BABA (11.44%), and EBAY (8.11%), the fund has surged 31.9% year to date, reflecting strong momentum in digital commerce. The $179.17 billion average market cap suggests solid liquidity. The 58 basis point fee is competitive for this specialized exposure, with 0.02 million shares trading in recent sessions.

Global X E-commerce ETF (EBIZ) provides international diversification through 41 e-commerce companies globally. Holdings span EXPE (6.10%), SHOP (5.57%), and BABA (4.87%), offering exposure beyond pure retail. Up 19.4% year to date, the $51 million fund charges 50 basis points and traded 0.01 million shares recently.

Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) takes a different approach, offering 97 U.S. consumer staples stocks with WMT (14.48%), COST (11.96%), and PG (10.05%) as top positions. With $1.33 billion in net assets and just 8 basis points in fees, this fund delivered 2.4% year-to-date gains and provides core portfolio stability. Trading volume reached 0.19 million shares in recent sessions.

The Bottom Line

Record holiday traffic on Super Saturday signals that retail remains a viable investment avenue—but only for funds holding the right companies. Quality, scale, and operational excellence matter more than ever. These four ETFs capture that dynamic across different retail segments.