Year-end employment data releases mixed signals, and the unemployment rate may face upward pressure

2025-12-31 15:52:22

【Blockchain Rhythm】A set of interesting employment data came out at the end of December. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits during the week of Christmas dropped from 215,000 to 199,000, which looks pretty good— but here’s the problem: the forecast was 220,000, so this decline was actually smaller than expected.

Economists are cautious about this data. The reason is simple: the seasonal adjustment during holiday weeks was particularly strong this year, casting doubt on the data’s reliability. They believe we need to wait until mid to late January to see a more accurate signal from initial jobless claims.

That said, the total number of layoffs is still low, which is a positive sign. The non-farm payrolls data for December, to be released next week, is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs. But this doesn’t mean the situation is entirely optimistic. Economists predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.7%, partly because the labor force participation rate is increasing—that is, more people are re-entering the job market, increasing competition.

Overall, the surface data looks good, but the underlying structural pressures are worth paying attention to.

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ChainSherlockGirl

· 6h ago

Data, when seasonally adjusted, makes it hard to tell what's real and what's fake. We'll have to wait until January to know the true situation. But speaking of which, more people entering the job market increases competition. Does this affect the flow of large wallet addresses on the chain? Economic tightening often has interesting effects. Unemployment rate rising to 4.7%? This pace seems a bit off. Expectations are just a slap in the face. Anyway, seasonal adjustments can always find reasons every year. Honestly, we still need to look at the real data in January. For now, let's just treat this set as a reference; there's too much personal speculation involved.

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TokenomicsTinfoilHat

· 6h ago

The data looks good, but it's actually all fake. Once seasonal adjustments are made, everything gets messed up. Let's wait until January to see.

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BlockchainWorker

· 6h ago

Data can be deceptive; once seasonal adjustments are made, the true picture becomes unclear. Unemployment rate is rising again, and the job market is about to heat up... Forget it, I’ll just keep lying flat. Those Wall Street folks are always throwing smoke screens; we’ll see the real story next month. Non-farm payrolls are the real reassurance, 75,000 jobs... feels a bit fake. 4.7% unemployment rate? Oh my, I’ll probably need to go through a hundred interviews to find a job.

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CryptoNomics

· 6h ago

honestly the seasonal adjustment manipulation is the real story here. if you actually ran a proper AR(1) model on the underlying noise, you'd see the jobless claims signal is essentially stationary—meaning this whole "positive beat" narrative is just noise. but sure, let retail traders celebrate 19.9k like it means something without understanding the endogeneity problem first.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 6h ago

Data conflicts, seasonal adjustments are too blunt of a tool. Let's wait for the real signals in January — that's when the supply chain will be truly tested.

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GateUser-0717ab66

· 6h ago

Seasonal adjustments really messed this up. Can we trust the data... Let's wait until January to see. It's too early to say anything now. The unemployment rate is going up again, and the competition is heating up. There's a question mark on the data, but low layoffs are indeed good news. More people looking for jobs = increased competition, that logic makes sense.

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ColdWalletAnxiety