Copper's Momentum Powers Freeport Stock to 35% Surge

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has delivered impressive returns recently, with shares climbing 35.3% over the past three months—a performance that substantially outpaces both the Mining-Non Ferrous industry’s 25.9% gain and the broader S&P 500’s 4.7% rise during the same timeframe.

What’s Behind the Rally?

The primary catalyst driving Freeport’s upside stems from exceptional copper market conditions. As a copper-centric producer, the company has capitalized on record-high metal prices supported by constrained global supply and persistent logistics challenges. The previous quarter saw Freeport report a 38-cent improvement in adjusted realized prices (ARP) for copper year-over-year—a meaningful expansion reflecting the metal’s strength.

Underpinning copper’s extended rally are several structural demand tailwinds. Technology sector electrification and the clean energy transition continue fueling consumption across industries. Electric vehicle adoption stands out as a critical growth engine, with EVs requiring substantially more copper than traditional automobiles. Freeport recognizes this opportunity and projects strong near-term momentum, with the EV market expected to expand rapidly over the coming decade.

China’s economic trajectory further reinforces copper’s outlook. Rising deployment of electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure in the world’s second-largest economy provides additional demand support.

Operational Progress at Grasberg

Freeport’s Indonesian Grasberg mine—temporarily constrained by operational challenges—is now returning to full capacity. The company is executing plans to restart operations and increase underground production, with improved milling rates on the horizon.

A newly constructed greenfield smelter in Eastern Java reached substantial completion during 2024. Full operational ramp-up is targeted for late 2025. Additionally, Freeport is advancing the Kucing Liar ore body development within the Grasberg district, aiming to commence production by 2030.

These infrastructure investments position the company to benefit further from elevated copper prices while addressing supply chain constraints that have benefited pricing.

Investment Positioning & Comparative Outlook

Freeport currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) designation. However, investors tracking similar mining exposure may consider other ranked options: Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) with consensus earnings estimates of $1.67 per share—up 145.59% year-over-year—and has delivered 223.9% returns over the past year. Fortuna Mining Corp. (FSM) holds a Rank #2 (Buy) with projected earnings of 76 cents per share, reflecting 65.22% growth and 145.6% annual share appreciation. Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX) also carries a Rank #2 rating with estimated earnings of 54 cents, implying 170% year-over-year expansion and 87% average earnings surprise magnitude.

The Bottom Line

Freeport’s 35% three-month advance reflects the convergence of structural copper demand growth, operational recovery at key assets, and favorable supply dynamics. While the company maintains a neutral rating, its exposure to the secular electrification theme and strategic capacity expansion position it to navigate the evolving commodities landscape.