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【Economist: Holiday Effect May Disrupt the Truth of Initial Jobless Claims Data】Latest news on December 31st, top economists point out that unemployment benefit application data before and after the holidays may have significant deviations. During the week of Christmas, initial claims dropped from 215,000 to 199,000, while market expectations were 220,000.

Key finding: "The seasonal adjustment issues during holiday weeks this year are much more severe than the historical average, and it may take until late January to see the true signals." However, from another perspective, the scale of layoffs remains at a low level. December non-farm employment is expected to increase by 75,000 jobs, with related data to be announced next week.

It is worth noting: "We predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.7%, mainly because the labor force participation rate has increased again." These macro data changes may be bringing new investment opportunities to the market.