Why Hartford Insurance Deserves a Place on Your Radar – 27% Yearly Surge Tells the Story

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) has turned heads with a commanding 27% return over the past 12 months, substantially outpacing both the industry’s 9.7% gain and the S&P 500’s 19.5% performance. The stock’s impressive climb isn’t driven by hype—it’s rooted in operational discipline, premium growth and favorable investment conditions.

What’s Behind the Hartford Radar?

Based in Hartford, Connecticut, the company operates across diverse insurance and financial services verticals domestically and internationally. With a $38.6 billion market cap and currently holding a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), the critical question is whether momentum can sustain beyond current valuations.

The earnings story paints an encouraging picture. The 2025 EPS consensus of $12.44 represents a robust 20.8% jump year-over-year, with 2026 projected at $13—a 4.5% advance. Recent activity shows one upward revision in the past month with no downgrades, a sign of analyst confidence. More tellingly, HIG has crushed expectations in four consecutive quarters, averaging a 14.3% earnings surprise.

Execution Excellence Emerging

On the top-line front, 2025 revenue guidance sits at $19.9 billion, suggesting 9.1% growth compared to the prior year. The trajectory continues higher into 2026 with a projected 7.6% year-over-year increase, indicating sustainable business momentum.

What separates Hartford from peers is capital-efficient execution. The company has deliberately shed legacy run-off portfolios and non-core assets, sharpening focus on profitability and risk management. Digital transformation initiatives and data science investments are bolstering customer acquisition while strengthening platform resilience.

These moves translate directly to metrics that matter. Hartford’s 12-month return on equity clocks in at 21.07%—more than 2.6x the industry average of 8.02%. That gap reflects superior capital allocation and operational rigor.

Hartford Next, the company’s operational restructuring program, is delivering measurable wins. Employee Benefits improved core margin by 10 basis points during the first nine months of 2025, while Business Insurance sharpened its combined ratio by 70 basis points—concrete evidence of better underwriting discipline taking hold.

The Capital Returns Story

Shareholders haven’t been overlooked. HIG repurchased $1.5 billion in shares during 2024, followed by $1.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2025. With $1.95 billion remaining under authorization, buyback support should persist. Dividend payouts of $446 million year-to-date support a 1.7% yield—substantially above the 0.3% industry average.

Keep These Risks on the Hartford Radar

The Personal Insurance segment remains a soft spot. Despite improvements, cost pressures linger, with the segment posting a 96.2% combined ratio through nine months—still elevated. Margin recovery here needs to prove durable before celebrating victory.

The balance sheet also warrants scrutiny. Long-term debt of $4.4 billion dwarfs the $150 million cash position, with leverage at 24.1% of total equity—meaningfully above peer averages. Management’s execution and strategic discipline help offset this concern, but it’s worth monitoring.

The Bottom Line

Hartford’s 27% rally reflects genuine operational progress, not speculative excess. Disciplined execution, strategic portfolio optimization and shareholder-friendly capital management provide a solid foundation. However, near-term headwinds in Personal Insurance and elevated leverage mean investors should keep Hartford firmly on their radar—watching for signs of sustained margin recovery before adding or increasing exposure.