#数字资产动态追踪 $ZRX

Against the backdrop of global central banks collectively easing monetary policy, Japan has taken a different path—by the end of 2025, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has sharply raised interest rates for the first time in 30 years, giving a strong slap in the face to the market.

On December 19, the BOJ raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the fourth rate hike within a year. The numbers may seem small, but for a market accustomed to "zero interest rates" for the past 30 years, this is nothing short of seismic.

Why has Japan been forced into this situation? Core CPI has exceeded 2% for 51 consecutive months, the yen has fallen to 157.9 against the US dollar, approaching the technical intervention line at 160. Import costs are soaring, and wages and prices are caught in a vicious cycle—once Japan loosens its grip, inflation could spiral out of control. So rather than waiting for disaster, Japan is taking proactive measures. While the Federal Reserve is still cutting rates and the interest rate differential hasn't been fully eliminated, Japan is eager to normalize its monetary policy and break free from the "low interest rate trap."

It sounds resolute, but behind it all are difficulties. Government debt exceeds 250% of GDP, and after spending 21.3 trillion yen on fiscal stimulus, the country now needs to tighten monetary policy—these are contradictory actions that offset each other. Small and medium-sized enterprise loan rates have already broken 2%, and ordinary households are paying an extra 18,000 yen annually on mortgages. Consumption and investment are both being squeezed.

The most painful part is yen carry trade. Those "Mrs. Watanabe" investors who borrow yen to invest overseas will face the fate of having to unwind their positions and repay debts once the yen appreciates. When they sell, high-risk assets globally will suffer—cryptocurrencies, being highly liquid and sensitive, are among the first to be affected.

On December 19, the day of the rate hike, crypto indices even surged over 6.22%, only to fall sharply in the following days. The market's volatility reflects just how intense the divergence of opinions is.

Will Japan's gamble of "not raising rates and waiting for death, raising rates and courting death" become a long-term squeeze on global liquidity? Will the crypto market be overwhelmed by this shock, or can it quietly break out into an independent trend? No one can say for sure right now.