Speaking honestly to friends who are currently chasing the high in ZEC, those who have profited from shorting in the crypto space can see where the problem lies—this wave of market movement simply cannot withstand scrutiny.

Some might ask, ZEC is already rising, isn't shorting now risky for getting caught? Here, I need to correct a misconception: shorting is not about betting on a short-term crash, but about judging the medium- to long-term direction of a coin. The current rise in ZEC is entirely driven by capital speculation, with no fundamental support behind it. Such purely capital-driven markets tend to heat up quickly and cool down just as fast; once cooling begins, the reverse movement can be very fierce.

Understanding the logic behind ZEC's hype reveals that it's based on the claim "old mining machines have high output." But upon closer inspection, this is untenable. The Z15 miners from 2020 are now outdated; under normal circumstances, they are just scrap and worth around 30 yuan. Yet now, they are being hyped to 30,000 yuan each—this is not about output value, but clearly a bubble created by capital. Moreover, these old miners have extremely low hash rates and high maintenance costs. The claims that they can produce 200 yuan per day are almost certainly smoke screens put out by capital to attract funds. Once the capital withdraws, the price of the miners will crash first, and the coin price will follow downward.

Looking back at history, you can find similar patterns. The KAS coin in 2022 was also following this same routine, and now ZEC's trend is almost a copy-paste.