2025-12-31 16:23:56

In 2026, the global central banks kicked off with a bizarre policy divergence—while the Federal Reserve publicly talks about preventing inflation, it is honestly easing liquidity, whereas Japan and Europe are considering rate hikes. This contradictory situation is reshaping the market liquidity landscape, prompting cross-border capital to shift direction. Can your positions withstand this?

From the latest FOMC minutes, internal disagreements over rate cuts have already exploded. The 9:3 voting result seems stable, but Powell is clearly under pressure. Even more absurd, while the Fed claims "inflation threats remain," it is quietly purchasing $220 billion in short-term bonds—this operation is truly bizarre. Rather than tightening, it’s more like a disguised form of QE.

This policy wobble is beginning to impact the crypto market. The decoupling trend between Bitcoin and US stocks is becoming more apparent, with institutional investors seeking new entry points. On-chain treasury products (like USTB) are gradually becoming choices for institutional deployment, while liquidity risks in altcoins are accumulating in the shadows—ready to evaporate at any moment.

If you want to survive longer in this market, you need to watch a few key signals. First, monitor the on-chain treasury spread and Bitcoin open interest—these two death crosses are critical. Especially when open interest surpasses 40 billion, market sentiment often reverses. Second, don’t ignore the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) in on-chain data; when this indicator exceeds 5.0, it usually signals that institutions are quietly accumulating.

The most extreme risk scenario is this: simultaneous rate hikes in Japan and Europe with Fed rate cuts, which could cause the dollar to plummet over 3% in a single day, triggering collective forced liquidations of arbitrage positions. In such a scenario, defensive strategies are crucial—holding USD cash, deploying Bitcoin put options, and moderately allocating gold as a ballast.

The key to the wealth game in 2026 may lie in this crack within the traditional financial system. What’s your choice? Hold Bitcoin and wait for liquidity to release, short mainstream coins to hedge downside risk, fully bet on rate cut narratives, or have you already deployed on-chain RWA to find new tracks? Share your views and position arrangements in the comments.

(Risk warning: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. DYOR and manage risks properly.)

BTC-1.2%

RWA-2.99%

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LiquidationAlert

· 21h ago

Powell being grilled is so real, tough on the outside but soft on the inside—truly outrageous. The Federal Reserve is playing word games, and we're losing money. This deal isn't worth it. I need to keep a close eye on the 40 billion open interest; it feels like it could explode at any moment. Everyone betting on rate cuts with full positions should be cautious; this wave of chopping up retail investors is happening at an incredible speed. I saw the SSR breaking 5 signals early; institutions are accumulating, and we're still buying in. If the triangular arbitrage between Japan, Europe, and the US really happens, it's all just trouble now. Rather than guessing the central bank's intentions, it's better to hold onto USD cash first. Altcoins are really dangerous this time; liquidity risk is an invisible killer. The on-chain RWA track is indeed new, but we should wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before moving. Bitcoin decoupling from US stocks is actually a good sign, at least indicating it has independent value.

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GateUser-40edb63b

· 21h ago

Powell's recent actions are truly outrageous—claiming to prevent inflation while actually flooding the market, it's really bad. -- The 9:3 voting split at the Federal Reserve has me a bit worried; it feels like the market is about to split. -- Once the quasi-QE is confirmed, the crypto world will probably explode. I don't even dare to hold large positions right now. -- I've long been aware of the liquidity risk in altcoins and have already reduced my holdings. Now I'm just waiting to see what happens. -- I've been watching the 40 billion open interest line closely. If it breaks, a reversal might really happen. -- Hold on, is it true that the US, Europe, and Japan are raising interest rates while the Fed cuts, causing the dollar to plummet 3%? -- Right now, I'm just holding onto Bitcoin, waiting for liquidity to be released. I don't dare move anything else. -- RWA (Real-World Asset) sector is indeed worth deploying, but is it a bit late to enter now? -- The stablecoin stock ratio surpassing 5.0 compared to SSR—are institutions really accumulating? It still feels like I need to do more research. -- In a defensive strategy, holding USD cash is definitely important, but if you only hold cash, you earn nothing. -- The recent divergence in central bank policies is truly strange; this crack in the traditional financial system might actually hide some opportunities.

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ChainWatcher

· 21h ago

Oh my, Powell really can't hold up this time. He says he's tightening monetary policy but is frantically buying bonds, truly becoming a negative example haha

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ShibaOnTheRun

· 21h ago

Powell is easing liquidity while claiming to fight inflation—his acting is really top-notch. I just want to know who believes it? Honestly, I started reducing my holdings of shanzhai the moment SSR broke 5.0. It feels like institutions are quietly accumulating, and retail investors following along is a bit risky. A 3% crash in the dollar is an outrageous scenario, but if it really happens, the cash in hand will be valuable. So now, 50% cash just relaxes comfortably. Looking at on-chain data is much more useful than reading news. Open interest contracts tell the real story—saying everything is stable is just talk; liquidation of contracts is the real truth. Raising interest rates in Japan and Europe + the Fed cutting rates—these two happening at the same time? That’s hilarious. It’s basically an arbitrage paradise—just worried about getting caught in a reverse liquidation if you go in. Honestly, I’m a bit cautious now. I’ve got some put options on Bitcoin, just waiting for this farce to play out. USTB is indeed good, but we need to be careful with the institutions accumulating—don’t get caught off guard. My position has already been adjusted. Now it’s just a matter of who can last longer. Anyway, I don’t dare to go all-in on any narrative.

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BlockchainArchaeologist

· 21h ago

The Fed's move is really brilliant, claiming to prevent inflation while aggressively buying 220 billion in bonds—it's basically a form of QE in disguise. Powell being pushed to the edge is understandable; the 9:3 split can't contain the disagreements, and the internal tensions have long since exploded. The key is to keep a close eye on open interest and SSR indicators; once the 40 billion threshold is broken, institutions will have to act. Altcoins' liquidity risk is indeed deeply hidden, feeling like they could evaporate at any moment. Currently, I am holding USD + Bitcoin put options, and I also have some gold as a stabilizer. This round of market movement depends on who reacts faster; the decoupling trend is too obvious, and holding on blindly won't work.

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EternalMiner

· 22h ago

Powell's tactics are truly brilliant; shouting about preventing inflation while engaging in QE, it's enough to give me a headache. The Fed's recent moves are like magic tricks; let's see how Japan and Europe respond. I'm actually paying attention to SSR breaking above 5.0; signals of institutional accumulation still need to be watched. It's all about risks; whoever can stay steady in this market wins. Honestly, my current position mindset is a bit崩, I still need to set up some defenses. Once the script of the dollar plummeting plays out, arbitrage positions will definitely be liquidated. I've seen through Bitcoin decoupling from US stocks; this is the main logic for this year. On-chain government bond products like USTB are indeed attracting institutions; we need to keep up with the pace. The liquidity trap of altcoins is too deep; entering now is just asking for death. I'm also watching the open interest of 40 billion in contracts; once it breaks through, it's time to bail out.

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