Recently, the ZEC issues in the backend have been exploding—newbies want to buy the dip, veterans want to take profits. So today, I’ll just give a unified explanation: the current performance of this coin is a typical "divisive confusion," but the true direction should become clear around the New Year. My trading plan has long been locked in. After reading this, you’ll be able to judge for yourself.

First, let’s address a fundamental misconception. When judging whether a coin is truly strong or just虚胖, never focus solely on short-term price fluctuations. What’s the key? Look at the "recursion structure of high and low points." ZEC is a典型的递减型—each rebound’s top is lower than the previous one. What does this indicate? The bulls’ energy is gradually dissipating, each rally is a desperate struggle, and there’s no new capital actively entering. Under this pattern, rebounds are a gift to the bears and a meat grinder for the bulls.

The most critical game zone now is between 520-525. This is already the boundary where bulls and bears repeatedly tug. On the surface, it seems to hold, but my feeling is that this is just a "false equilibrium." The reason is quite painful—recent rebounds have had no volume support, a典型的"缩量反弹." Such rebounds are like going for a run without eating—unable to go far before needing to stop. If the rebound’s strength can’t connect properly, the 520-525 line is at risk. Once broken, there’s little solid support below, and a rapid decline is highly probable.

My own plan is this—this window period around New Year’s is very critical. If ZEC continues to perform weakly, I will firmly remain bearish; if a volume-supported rebound suddenly appears, then it’s a different story. Just for reference, as everyone’s risk appetite varies.