Gold achieves its best annual performance since 1979, and silver surges by 150%. However, the first market test of the new year arrives suddenly. Spot gold drops below the 4450 level, silver falls over 3% in a single day, and platinum crashes by 7%. Two powerful forces are driving this correction—the adjustment of commodity index weights and the upcoming US non-farm payroll data.

The question is straightforward. The Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustment takes effect from January 8, meaning $108.8 billion of passive funds must be forcibly sold, with $6.8 billion of outflows each for gold and silver. Due to relatively low liquidity, 9% of open contracts in silver may be forced to close, amplifying short-term volatility. Even more concerning is the non-farm payroll report this Friday—if employment exceeds expectations, the Fed’s rate cut expectations will cool down, directly hitting precious metals.

But the long-term story in the market continues. Central banks worldwide are still buying gold to support prices, and the de-dollarization trend remains unchanged. The five-year supply-demand gap for silver is real, with industrial demand driven by solar and AI server applications also surging. Major Wall Street institutions have not changed their outlook—Bank of America predicts silver could eventually rise to $135–$309, and JPMorgan is optimistic about gold reaching $4,800 in Q4.

Even more interesting is the rise of the RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization) track for precious metals. Hong Kong has launched compliant tokenization products, and it’s forecasted that by 2030, the total RWA market size will reach $16 trillion. This opens a new safe-haven window for investors—not just traditional spot trading, but also on-chain tokenization solutions.

Is this short-term correction an opportunity to get in or a warning sign of a bull market? Can gold hold the $4,200 support? Will precious metal RWAs break through against the trend? The answers to these questions may be revealed in the first few weeks of 2026.