Recent BTC movements have sent several signals worth analyzing.

**BTC's Rebound Logic**

A couple of days ago, I positioned long around 93,200 and hedged with shorts near 92,800. This strategy allowed me to exit relatively unscathed with some gains. Although I didn't fully lock in profits at the exact bottom this morning, I managed to keep the overall rhythm.

Looking back, BTC indeed dropped from 93k yesterday, completing the expected ABC correction with a C-wave retest. This indicates that the correction pressure has largely been released. Even if there are still some probing attempts later, based on liquidity and structure, the probability of a deep dive is now low.

**Why remain firmly bullish to 98-99k?**

The next target is directly at the 98-99k range. Its significance lies in being a structural trend line—this sense of certainty is the same as when I confidently bullishly predicted 87k earlier. Above 95k, there are large untouched zones, and market liquidity is relatively ample, increasing the chances of an upward breakout.

**Risk windows to watch out for**

But a special warning: once BTC reaches 98k, it's time to switch to a risk-off mode immediately. The period around the Spring Festival is prone to black swan events, and BTC could quickly fall back to the 65-70k range. When that moment arrives, market volatility will be intense. Participants must control their position sizes and avoid greed ruining the big picture.

**ETH faces technical challenges**

ETH's situation is much more tense. Yesterday, the daily chart touched the MA90 and then quickly declined, leaving a large bearish candle. This candle, combined with the long upper shadow on December 10, forms a classic double-top pattern. Currently, the K-line has broken below the 7-day moving average, severely limiting the short-term rebound space.

The next move largely depends on tomorrow's non-farm payroll data—this will significantly influence whether ETH can break down or hold support. It’s a critical moment that warrants close attention.