Ethereum is likely to continue fluctuating at high levels tomorrow (January 9), with little chance of a one-sided trend. The key is whether it can break through the 3180-3200 resistance zone or hold above the 3100-3120 support.

As of 18:30 on January 8, ETH is quoted at approximately $3119, down 2.81% in 24 hours. From a technical perspective, the 4-hour RSI has already fallen back from the overbought zone, and the MACD is also shrinking, indicating a short-term correction is indeed needed. Although the daily chart does not show clear directional signals, it mostly remains in a consolidation pattern.

Regarding support levels, 3100-3120 is currently the strongest support. If this level cannot hold, the price may further test the secondary support at 3050-3075. Once it breaks below 3050, the downward acceleration will significantly increase. On the other hand, resistance is currently at 3180-3200, with a further target of 3250-3300, but a volume increase is necessary for an effective breakout.

From a market-driving perspective, Bitcoin's correlation effect cannot be ignored, and attention should also be paid to the flow of ETF funds. Short-term liquidation pressure still exists, and macroeconomic data releases (such as US non-farm payrolls) or profit-taking by large holders could further amplify volatility.

Probabilistically, the highest chance (about 60%) is for consolidation, with repeated friction between 3100-3200. The next most likely scenario (about 30%) is a slight pullback to 3050-3075, with a decline limited to 1%-3%. The probability of a significant rally is relatively small (about 10%), requiring a volume breakout above 3200.