#预测市场 Seeing Pantera's 2026 forecast, I need to say a few words about the prediction market segmentation. Separating finance-oriented and culture-oriented approaches may sound idealistic, but reality is often not so clean.

I've seen too many projects claiming to be "prediction markets," but in reality, they are just gambling platforms in disguise. Those that claim to focus on the "cultural direction" and serve "long-tail enthusiasts" are essentially trying to reduce regulatory pressure under the guise of community-driven initiatives to attract retail investors. The problem is, once liquidity and funds grow, the entry of market makers becomes almost inevitable—this is not old news, but a pattern I've observed after analyzing many project lifecycles.

Finance-oriented projects are easier to understand; integrating with DeFi and offering leverage essentially means high-risk, high-reward trading tools. There's nothing wrong with this per se, but before entering, you must ask yourself: do you have enough risk tolerance and stop-loss discipline? Most people do not.

Pantera's colleague predicted a 7/10 accuracy rate for 2025, which is honestly quite good, but don't overtrust it. There are always three hurdles between prediction and reality: market sentiment, regulatory changes, and black swan events. For retail investors like us, the key is not to guess the big direction correctly but to survive long enough in any direction—this means risk control always comes before returns.