This Friday (January 9), the US will release two major data reports in quick succession, which could directly impact the upcoming market trend.

First, let's look at the unemployment rate. The unemployment data released at 8:30 AM Eastern Time is expected to be 4.5%. This number seems simple but reflects complex implications—if the unemployment rate rises, the market will worry about a recession, which could actually boost expectations for rate cuts; if the unemployment rate looks good, it indicates that the labor market remains robust, leaving the central bank less motivated to cut rates. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in January is only about 11%, making subsequent rate cut hopes even more unlikely.

More critically, at 10:00 AM, the Supreme Court tariff ruling will be announced. The market expects a 77% chance of the ruling being overturned. If it is indeed overturned, it could trigger over $600 billion in refunds, which would impact market sentiment. The cryptocurrency market is particularly sensitive to risk assets; weak economic data can trigger recession fears, while strong data might instead signal tighter policy measures. Overall, the volatility within these 24 hours could be quite intense.