#比特币价格预测 After reviewing Pompliano's perspective, the core logic is worth dissecting. His judgment is based on the dimension of volatility compression — the current BTC volatility has already significantly decreased, making the probability of a 70-80% crash in Q1 next year quite low from this perspective. This logical chain is valid.

However, it is important to note that low volatility does not mean risk has disappeared; it only reduces the likelihood of extreme fluctuations. From an on-chain fund perspective, the key is to track the movements of institutional and whale holdings — whether they are continuously accumulating at current prices, and the rhythm of large fund inflows and outflows.

BTC's two-year 100% increase and nearly 300% over three years are indeed sufficient to support confidence, but the failure of short-term price expectations has also genuinely changed market sentiment. The key points to observe next year should be: first, the actual allocation actions of institutional funds; second, changes in leverage positions in the derivatives market; third, the on-chain transfer patterns of large addresses. The combined signals of these indicators are more valuable than a single price forecast.