#以太坊大户持仓变化 $ETH $BIFI Volatility Ahead

This Friday is destined to be extraordinary. Federal Reserve officials have hinted that there may be a 150 basis point cut by 2026, far exceeding market expectations. Controllable inflation and uncertain employment seem to suggest that a rate cut cycle is truly on the horizon. But things are not that straightforward.

The political game behind the scenes is more complex. The Treasury Department is urging rate cuts, and the ruling party has even resorted to unconventional measures—directly ordering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage debt. Bypassing the independence of the Federal Reserve, the intent to intervene in the market is plainly evident.

Time waits for no one. On Friday evening, U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released, and weak figures could trigger an emergency response from the Fed. On the same day, the Supreme Court will also rule on tariffs, which is essentially a two-choice gamble for the market. With these two key events happening simultaneously, institutional investors have already begun adjusting their positions.

Commodity markets are also stirring. The final tariff rulings on silver and palladium are still in the works, and Citibank has already issued a warning about a "rush to ship." U.S. Treasury yields have been fluctuating within a narrow range for over a month, and a black swan event could happen tonight at any moment.

Five waves resonating together, global risk assets have no real chance to breathe. Is the rate cut reigniting hope, or is intervention policy spiraling out of control and causing new chaos? The cryptocurrency market is especially sensitive—every twist in these data and decisions will be instantly amplified in on-chain flows. On the night before dawn, the answer is about to surface.