Attention all with large positions, today BTC is not just about sentiment; you need to watch the real chip movements. To start with the conclusion: this set of signals is very clear—main force is bearish, and the operation pattern is phased distribution. What we should look for are shorting opportunities; don’t even think about bottom-fishing.

What does this mean in simple terms? The market’s game rules have changed today. It’s no longer about pumping and absorbing chips, but about pulling up while selling, using rebounds to disperse chips. Retail investors are easily fooled, seeing "why isn’t it falling anymore, oh suddenly it’s rallying again," and feeling itchy to buy in. But as soon as they do, they’re buying right into the main force’s distribution knife.

Now look at the risk control score chart. Most of the daytime it stays near the low zone, then suddenly there’s a steep surge to the high-risk area, followed by a quick fall back and stabilization at the low level. Sounds reassuring? Not really. This pattern usually indicates a single event, concentrated liquidation, or sudden volatility that spikes risk to the max, then calms down again. But this doesn’t mean the market has turned bullish; rather, it’s more like telling you—big volatility has already happened, and next it’s easy to fall into a weak rebound, only to be suppressed again, or to enter a sideways grind that tricks you into thinking it’s safe, relaxing your guard, and then hitting you with a blow at a critical point.

The most critical signal comes from the whale’s long positions. From January 3 to January 10, look at this curve—clearly a unilateral downtrend, with only a slight flattening at the end. Plainly put—big players are continuously reducing their longs, which at least shows they’re not in a hurry to add more at this price level. More likely, they’re reducing risk, recovering costs, waiting for lower prices, or looking for clearer reversal signals. When whales are reducing their positions… you can think about what that implies.