The data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on January 9th showed several surprises — non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs in December after seasonal adjustment, falling short of the market expectation of 60,000, and previous data was revised downward to 64,000. This cold data directly ignited the enthusiasm of gold bulls.

Interestingly, the unemployment rate moved in the opposite direction, unexpectedly dropping to 4.4%, below the expected and previous figures of 4.5% and 4.6%, respectively, helping the dollar maintain some face.

The CME "Federal Reserve Watch" tool shows that after the report was released, the probability of a rate cut in January only slightly increased from 11.6% to 13%, with the probability of holding rates steady still as high as 87%. This indicates that the market remains cautious about further easing bets. As a result, the US dollar index experienced a dip followed by a rebound, while non-USD currencies and precious metals fell into a tug-of-war.

From a technical perspective, the gold daily chart currently remains above the 2630 level. If it can break through 2655 in the short term, focus could shift to 2685; conversely, if it falls below 2620, caution is needed for a retest of 2600. Regarding the dollar index, 103.3 is a key dividing line — falling below this level could open further downside space to 102.8.

The upcoming market may maintain high volatility, as it still needs to digest the residual effects of non-farm payrolls, combined with corporate earnings season and geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to stay cautious, control risk exposure, avoid chasing highs or selling lows, and patiently wait for clearer directional signals.