2026-01-11 08:23:22

Well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo recently shared his views on Bitcoin's market outlook, and the perspective is quite interesting—short-term bullish, but long-term with a question mark.

Let's start with recent positive signals. Woo based his analysis on an internal investor capital flow model, finding that Bitcoin began a steady rebound after bottoming on December 24. He emphasizes a key point: it usually takes 2-3 weeks for changes in capital flow to be reflected in price movements. This is the current window period. Although short-term technical indicators show some overbought signals, they do not prevent the upward momentum driven by capital.

More importantly, the liquidity in the futures market is recovering—this is a significant signal. Woo mentioned that the last time this happened was in mid-2021, which coincided with the second top of that cycle. Therefore, the focus now shifts to the critical resistance zone of $98,000 to $100,000. If Bitcoin breaks through this barrier, close attention should be paid to whether there is resistance near the all-time high (ATH).

However, the analyst remains cautious about the longer-term outlook. From a macro perspective, since January 2025, liquidity relative to price momentum has been continuously declining. Woo describes the current phase as the "final hot zone"—which sounds like the last gasp. The lack of sufficient liquidity support for momentum is a potential risk signal.

He also leaves a caveat: if a large influx of spot buying occurs in the coming months, breaking the downtrend, his view could change. While we haven't confirmed a bear market yet, a sustained outflow of capital would be a lagging indicator of a bear market.

Overall, this is a "short-term promising, long-term cautious" assessment.

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LightningSentry

· 11h ago

9.8 to 100,000 this threshold really can't be broken, every time it gets stuck... --- Short-term eating meat, long-term drinking soup, why does this routine feel so familiar? --- Liquidity recession sounds terrifying, feels like it's going to go crazy in the end --- Willy is right, I can see the 2-3 week time difference clearly, we are indeed in the window period now --- Is it the end of a strong bow? It still depends on whether spot market can save the situation --- This round of rebound is a bit虚, overbought and still pushing hard, it will eventually pull back --- Continuous capital outflow will be the end, don’t cry then --- Short-term bullish, long-term question mark, honestly still lack confidence

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BanklessAtHeart

· 01-11 08:46

Short-term there are some opportunities, but the long-term signals of liquidity recession are really quite alarming... Willy's analysis this time still has some real skill. --- It's that same capital time difference theory again. If it were this accurate, I would have been financially free long ago, but the resistance level at 98,000-100,000 definitely needs to be watched closely. --- Wait, is this the end of the strong bull? Is it too early to talk about this now? The recession only started in January. --- The final hot zone... sounds like the market is about to collapse, but I still dare not stop dollar-cost averaging before confirming a bear market. --- I'm just wondering, why did the liquidity recovery in 2021 push to the second peak, but this rebound has to be questioned? --- So now, should I HODL or run? Woo, give a clear answer.

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RugPullSurvivor

· 01-11 08:44

Willy's way of speaking sounds just like always... Short-term rise, long-term fall, just a rhetoric of guaranteed profit with no risk. I bet five bucks that the 98k to 100k threshold will get stuck again. Why doesn't he just say directly that a bear market is coming due to liquidity recession? Instead, he has to go around such a big circle.

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GateUser-ccc36bc5

· 01-11 08:38

Good grief, it's another short-term sprint with a long-term ambush strategy. I think there's a chance for 98,000 this wave. --- Willy Woo's analysis this time is still the same old... liquidity lag, liquidity recession, sounds like he's leaving himself an exit. --- Basically, it's a gamble on whether it can break 100,000, if it breaks, continue to push for ATH; if not... then wait for the next round. --- I just want to ask, is the judgment of liquidity recession about to be proven wrong again? We said the same last year. --- Short-term optimism is good, but the question is when to cash out. Feels like I might be riding this wave to the end again. --- The hotspot areas in the final stage sound pretty scary... but I’ll still buy because of FOMO haha. --- How can the second top of the 2021 cycle be compared to now? The market environment has changed a lot, you know. --- Lack of liquidity support for momentum... at the end of the day, it just means no one is willing to keep buying in, just a more sophisticated way of saying it.

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AirdropFreedom

· 01-11 08:28

Willy Woo's analysis this time still has some substance, but I'm more concerned about whether the 98,000-100,000 level can be broken through. It feels like we'll see the answer here. Speaking of long-term bearishness, it really makes people unhappy. The decline in momentum sounds less optimistic. Wait, he said that as long as spot inflows continue, a reversal can happen? Then let's just wait and see who acts first. Honestly, a short-term rebound is a fact, but this metaphor of "the last gasp of a strong bow"… I’m a bit anxious. Oh man, I still need to guard my positions well. This cycle feels too unpredictable this time. Liquidity decline combined with lack of momentum, it feels like there are significant risks. We need to stay alert. My idea is to consider reducing positions once we see 100,000; otherwise, I always feel a bit uneasy.

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