#美国贸易赤字状况 【Risk Pricing: The Hidden Link Between the US Political Cycle and the Crypto Market】

According to the latest data, the probability of Trump being impeached again during his 2025-2029 term has surged to 57%, reaching a record high. Behind this number, there is much more than political gossip.

The real signal is here — the Trump team has already sent an early warning: if the opposition party makes significant gains in the 2026 midterm elections, a new round of impeachment is almost certain. From another perspective, what does this 57% probability increase itself indicate? The political risk has already been digested and priced in by the market.

This is not emotional fluctuation, nor is it baseless speculation. The US institutional framework and election cycle determine the inevitability of this logic — political cycles are inherently quantifiable and predictable. So when you see assets like $BTC $SOL $ETH moving in the context of political risk cycles, the driving forces behind them have long been in place.

The crypto market’s response speed to macro political risks is often more sensitive than traditional finance. This time is no exception.