#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 【The risk is already priced in, the real issue lies elsewhere】

The probability of Trump facing impeachment during his next term has surged to 57%, setting a new record. It sounds alarming, but this number itself is not the most worth pondering.

More interesting signals are here:

First, Trump has already hinted that if the opposition wins big in the 2026 midterm elections, a new round of impeachment is almost certain. This is no secret; the market has already digested it.

Second, the rising probability precisely indicates that political uncertainties have been priced in. This is not an emotional guess but a rational deduction based on institutional frameworks and election cycles. The volatility of assets like $BTC and $SOL , such as ETH, reflects this ongoing adjustment of expectations.

In other words—political risk is no longer risk; it has become part of the price. What we should really be cautious of are the variables that have not yet been digested by the market.