The truth about BTC rebound: When will Asian funds fight alone, and when will US funds enter the market?

According to the latest news, on-chain data analyst Murphy has discovered through the RMMPC sentiment indicator that there is a clear regional differentiation behind the current Bitcoin rebound: Asian funds have aggressively entered to drive the price rebound, but the Americas market funds have not actively followed suit. This asymmetric fund distribution is a key reason for the limited strength of the rebound.

Asian Funds Have Started, but Rebound Is Limited

Based on on-chain data, Asian funds began to aggressively intervene after December 19, 2025, pushing BTC to rebound after a second dip to $85,000. Currently, BTC is around $90,586.23. Although it has successfully recovered, recent price movements show: a 0.09% decline in 24 hours and a 0.83% decline over 7 days, indicating that the sustainability and strength of the rebound are relatively mild.

This phenomenon highlights a problem: relying solely on Asian funds is not enough to generate a truly strong market trend.

Patterns Revealed by Historical Models

This is not the first time such a situation has occurred. According to analysis, before the market started in March 2025, Asian funds also led the initial entry, followed by the US market funds. The key turning point was the participation of US funds, which ultimately provided strong momentum for the trend and decisively changed the market direction.

This means:

• Asian funds usually act as the “vanguard,” discovering opportunities first
• US funds are the “main force” of the trend, determining how far the rebound can go
• The coordination of funds from both markets is necessary to form a genuine trend

Current Market Waiting State

From on-chain data, the market is currently in a “semi-started” state. Asian funds have already tested the bottom, but US funds are still on the sidelines. This explains why the rebound is ongoing but lacks a momentum that feels unstoppable.

Based on market performance, BTC’s 24-hour trading volume is $1.201 billion, down 61.39% from the previous day, further confirming the insufficient market participation.

Key Variables Moving Forward

Next, it is important to watch when US funds will enter. Based on historical experience, once US funds start actively deploying, they can quickly change the market’s rhythm and strength. This not only affects whether BTC can continue rebounding but also influences the overall direction of the crypto market.

US fund participation usually brings several changes: a significant increase in trading volume, a larger rebound amplitude, and a shift in market sentiment from cautious to optimistic.

Summary

The truth behind the current BTC rebound is: Asian funds have already taken the lead, but the market is still waiting for US funds to follow. This asymmetric fund distribution determines the limited nature of the rebound. From historical patterns, the entry of US funds is the real signal of a market turning point. In the short term, market focus should be on observing the movements of US funds, as this will be a key indicator of whether the rebound can evolve into a larger trend.