#比特币价格分析 BTC $87,500, which has significantly deviated from the historical correlation with stocks and gold. According to PlanB's calculations, the theoretical price based on traditional correlation should be in the range of $4,500–$6,900, indicating a notable "decoupling" phenomenon at the current price.

The key question is: what are the structural reasons behind this decoupling?

Looking back at history, similar deviations in correlation have indeed occurred—during the period when Bitcoin was below $1,000, followed by an approximately 10x increase. However, it is important to note that the market structure, institutional participation, and liquidity depth of Bitcoin at that time were completely different from now.

From an on-chain perspective, what to monitor now is:
- Whether institutions and whales are continuously accumulating or gradually distributing
- Whether exchange fund flows support this price decoupling
- Whether derivatives leverage ratios are at historical highs

Relying solely on historical correlation to infer a 10x rally involves excessive extrapolation risks. A more pragmatic approach is to observe whether on-chain fund movements truly support the sustainability of this decoupling. A breakdown in correlation could mean a new pricing logic or be driven by short-term sentiment—data will tell.