Fluor Stock Under Pressure: Will the Engineering Giant Bounce Back?

The 2025 Stumble

Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR), a heavyweight in global engineering and construction, has had a rough year. While the S&P 500 surged 17% in 2025, Fluor’s stock tanked 20% — a painful divergence that shocked many long-term believers in the company.

The damage accelerated after its August 1 earnings miss. Management didn’t just disappoint; it downgraded full-year guidance and dropped bombshells: major infrastructure projects like the Gordie Howe Bridge and Texas highway contracts were bleeding money. Cost overruns, design flaws, and scheduling delays suddenly dominated the narrative.

The fallout was swift. A class action lawsuit hit the company alleging “materially misleading” statements about growth. Then came a $653 million settlement with Santos, an Australian oil and gas firm, to resolve a bitter dispute. That chunk was booked against revenue rather than expenses, which torched Fluor’s top-line numbers further.

The Real Problem: Execution Meltdown

Peel back the surface, and the core issue emerges clearly — Fluor lost control of its biggest contracts. The company’s backlog, a bellwether for future revenue, has shrunk for four consecutive quarters. Management isn’t winning new mega-deals at the pace it’s completing old ones.

Here’s the financial reality:

2025 Performance Metrics:

• Q2 revenue declined 6% year-over-year
• Q3 revenue dropped 18% year-over-year (Santos settlement impact)
• Adjusted EBITDA turned negative in Q2 (down 42% YoY)
• Backlog fell 10% in Q3 compared to last year

2024 Context:

• Fluor’s revenue grew just 5% in 2024
• Adjusted EBITDA shrank 14% despite revenue gains
• Backlog contracted by 3% in Q4 2024

The company has responded by deliberately shifting toward smaller, lower-risk contracts — a strategic pivot to rebuild credibility but also a sign it’s retreated from big-ticket infrastructure plays.

NuScale Distraction and Activist Pressure

There’s another layer: Fluor’s 39% stake in NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR), which develops small modular reactors. The company’s investment distracted leadership during a critical period when execution problems were piling up.

Enter Starboard Value, an activist investor that grabbed nearly 5% of Fluor in October. The activist firm is pushing hard for one thing: monetize the NuScale position. Whether through open-market sales or a tax-free spin-off, unlocking that capital could fund aggressive share buybacks while the stock languishes at depressed valuations.

That potential $4+ billion catalyst could shift the equation for shareholders.

Why the Stock Might Recover

Despite the carnage, Fluor doesn’t look terminally broken. Here’s the bull case:

Valuation is deeply discounted: At 9x next year’s expected EBITDA (analysts forecast 2026 EBITDA growth of 10%) and less than 1x forward sales, the enterprise value sits at just $4.5 billion. That’s cheap for a company of Fluor’s scale.

Recovery trajectory is visible: Analysts expect 2025 revenue and EBITDA to decline 4% and 19% respectively, but 2026 should see a 7% revenue rise and 10% EBITDA expansion as the company stabilizes.

Multiple catalysts loom: If Fluor resolves its execution issues, restarts backlog growth, and unlocks NuScale value, the market could re-rate the stock significantly higher.

The Path Forward

Over the next 12 months, Fluor’s fate hinges on execution. The company must prove it can manage the remaining troubled projects without further surprises, land fresh contracts that rebuild confidence, and find a smart way to monetize its NuScale holdings.

A spectacular rally seems unlikely — the company has lost too much trust. But a gradual recovery is plausible if it checks those boxes. The low valuation provides downside protection, and activist involvement suggests someone sees hidden value.

The real question isn’t whether Fluor will soar, but whether it can stabilize and claw back credibility with investors and customers alike.