When Will Crypto's Next Major Upside Really Kick In? Here's What the Data Says

The question everyone’s asking: when does the bull run actually start in 2026? After last year’s halving, the math suggests we’re right in the window where momentum typically builds.

The Timeline Most Traders Are Watching

Q1 2026 looks like the inflection point. Analysts across the board are eyeing January through March as the period when liquidity conditions could shift and a proper rally might take shape. The reasoning is straightforward—if historical patterns hold, that 12-to-18-month window after Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving should put us right here, right now.

Expect potential peaks around June. If the current macro backdrop doesn’t change dramatically, strategists like Raoul Pal have flagged mid-2026 as a realistic level where the upside momentum could exhaust and consolidation might return. So we’re potentially looking at a 5-6 month runway from now.

What Actually Needs to Happen

This isn’t automatic. The catalysts have to materialize:

• Rate cuts: If central banks continue easing, that’s fuel for risk assets
• Regulatory green lights: Clarity on crypto rules removes a major overhang
• Institutions coming back: Bigger money entering the space drives structural demand
• New narratives: Tokenization, AI-layer tokens, and emerging use cases could spark fresh interest

Without these, you get prolonged sideways action instead of a proper bull scenario.

One Critical Thing to Remember

Not all coins move together. Bitcoin might lead the charge while altcoins lag or surge independently depending on where capital flows. Some assets could see delayed rallies, others might peak earlier. Liquidity and real adoption metrics will ultimately determine who rallies and who doesn’t.

Current snapshot:

• BTC: $91.79K (+0.99% on the day)
• ETH: $3.11K (-0.41%)
• SOL: $141.34 (+1.09%)

Bottom line: The calendar suggests early-to-mid 2026 is when things could get interesting. But it’s not guaranteed—volatility and actual market conditions will write the final story.