Can You Bet in New York? State Moves to Severely Restrict Prediction Market Activity

New York is set to tighten its grip on prediction markets operating within its borders. Assemblyman Clyde Vanel has brought forward the ORACLE Act—Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events—a comprehensive piece of legislation designed to curtail the scope of event-based wagering platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

The Regulatory Landscape Shift

The prediction market sector has experienced remarkable growth recently, with users increasingly turning to these platforms for wagering on diverse outcomes across multiple domains. However, this expansion has triggered regulatory backlash. State authorities across the country have begun asserting that prediction market operators must obtain gambling licenses to function legally, creating friction between platform operators and regulatory bodies. Kalshi has taken an aggressive legal stance, challenging state gambling regulators including New York’s Gaming Commission, maintaining that federal law governs its operations rather than state statutes.

Proposed Market Restrictions Under New York Law

The ORACLE Act targets several categories of contracts that prediction markets currently offer:

Sports and Athletic Events Sports wagering currently dominates prediction market revenues, with data suggesting sports-related contracts account for approximately 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume. The proposed legislation would prohibit contracts tied to specific match results in professional sports during regular seasons—including NFL contests—while permitting broader wagers on championship winners like the Super Bowl. The bill also aims to eliminate proposition betting, which encompasses contracts on individual player performance, scoring sequences, and other granular game details.

Political and Government Outcomes Markets predicting electoral results, legislative actions, or party performance in elections such as U.S. midterms would face prohibition. This category represents a significant regulatory concern for legislators seeking to prevent speculation on political processes.

Catastrophic and Crisis Events Contracts wagering on wars, public emergencies, natural disasters, mass casualty events, terrorism, or pandemics would be banned. The legislation also targets so-called “death markets”—contracts allowing individuals to wager on fatalities or harm to specific persons.

Financial Instruments Markets enabling speculation on publicly traded company valuations would fall under the bill’s prohibitions.

User Protections and Enforcement Mechanisms

The bill includes provisions requiring prediction market platforms to implement self-exclusion options and enable users to set limits on time spent and money wagered on their services. Enforcement teeth are built into the legislation: platforms that continue operating prohibited markets in New York face penalties of $1 million per day until they achieve compliance, creating substantial financial incentives for adherence.

Implications for Market Participants

For New York residents and prediction market platforms seeking to maintain operations in the state, the ORACLE Act represents a significant constraint on product offerings. The restrictions would fundamentally reshape what types of event contracts can legally be offered, forcing platforms to make difficult choices between compliance and market presence. Whether Kalshi and other operators will challenge this legislation in court—as they have other state regulations—remains to be seen, potentially setting precedent for how prediction markets navigate the evolving regulatory environment.