2025 Lunar November Wrap-up: Domestic Policy Adjustments Intensify, Global Economic Growth Slows

Entering late November 2025 lunar calendar, a series of major policies and economic data have been released successively, attracting market attention.

Complex Situation in the Domestic Economy

The latest data released by the statistical department shows that the CPI for the full year of 2025 is flat compared to the previous year, but in December, it increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the growth continuing to expand. Meanwhile, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have shown rare strong performance—Shanghai Composite Index once again reached the 4100-point mark after ten years, recording 16 consecutive trading days of gains, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets exceeded 3 trillion yuan, with market sentiment clearly warming.

However, news from the banking sector is less optimistic. Some banks’ short-term large-denomination deposit rates have entered the “0” range, with the difference from ordinary fixed deposits narrowing. Industry insiders predict that this downward trend may continue, reflecting a market environment of relatively loose liquidity.

Frequent Policy Adjustments Involving Multiple Livelihood Fields

This week, there have been significant policy moves. The medical security department and the Ministry of Finance jointly announced that the scope of mutual aid for employee medical insurance personal accounts will expand from provincial to national level, marking an important breakthrough in the medical insurance system. At the same time, the State Administration of Radio and Television explicitly demanded to curb the “adultization” trend of children’s micro-dramas, strictly prohibiting portrayals of adult content by children, highlighting regulatory attention to content ecology.

The authorities will also initiate an investigation into the “involution” competition in the food delivery industry. Platforms such as Meituan, Taobao Flash Sale, and JD.com Food Delivery have expressed their active cooperation. Additionally, the Ministry of Law clarified that it does not support treating bride price as a freely revocable “investment,” further regulating related agreements in civil relations.

International Economy and Geopolitical Fluctuations

Global economic growth faces downward pressure. The latest United Nations report forecasts that the global economic growth rate in 2026 will be 2.7%, lower than 2.8% in 2025, reflecting a gradual weakening of global growth momentum. Meanwhile, financial disputes between the US and the United Nations are still fermenting—reports indicate that the US owes the UN over 3 billion USD, and a UN spokesperson warned that if the US continues to “default,” it could face losing its voting rights in the General Assembly.

The Trump administration has been active on the international stage. US media reported that it has canceled the second wave of sanctions plans against Venezuela, with oil companies stating they will invest at least 100 billion USD; at the same time, Trump again threatened Iran over related incidents, stating that if there are further casualties, the US will respond severely. Iran immediately accused the US and Israel of planning the incident. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, with Russian forces claiming to have used “Zircon” missiles and other large-scale strikes on key Ukrainian facilities in retaliation for the attack on Putin’s residence.

【This Week’s Highlights】Under the multiple backgrounds of domestic policy support, slowing overseas economy, and escalating geopolitical conflicts, the market presents a “fire and ice” situation. Monitoring policy implementation and progress in resolving global risks will be key to the future market.