Recently reviewed an annual research report from a leading exchange, and the more I look, the more I realize there's a key insight that needs correction: instead of asking whether the risks in 2026 are bullish or bearish, the real trap is still using the traditional "typical bull and bear" mindset to analyze the current market.

Let me present some data to feel the trend. In 2025, the total crypto market cap surged past $4 trillion, Bitcoin’s market share remained stuck at a high of 58-60% for a long time, spot ETF inflows reached $21.3 billion, and institutional holdings broke 1.1 million BTC — all these indicators tell the same story: the market structure is quietly strengthening.

But that’s not all. Looking at on-chain data from a different perspective reveals interesting insights: active addresses decreased by 16% year-over-year, trading volume and transaction fees haven't kept pace with price increases, and most small-cap tokens are still underperforming, with retail investor funds not flowing out. What does this indicate? Bitcoin is transforming, gradually evolving from a "trading network" into a "macro financial asset." ETFs, corporate treasuries, and potentially future sovereign reserves are emerging as new forces, replacing retail and on-chain speculators as the main price setters.

This also explains why the eagerly anticipated certain quarter has never truly arrived. The fundamental reason is that this cycle has broken the previous "liquidity diffusion" pattern. What does the current environment look like? Capital is highly concentrated, risk appetite is clearly stratified, and it’s a highly atypical cycle structure. By analyzing the structure, it’s clear: sectors with real income like Bitcoin, stablecoins, and RWA are absorbing incremental capital, while assets that are "story-only without cash flow" are being continuously marginalized.

This is why I believe 2026 is more likely to see a bull-bear transition and an "atypical bear market structure." The "three engines" repeatedly mentioned in the report (fiscal stimulus + monetary easing + deregulation) indeed open up upside potential for risk assets, but you need to see clearly — this liquidity isn’t a broad-based rally for everyone; it rewards certainty and punishes ambiguity.

The divergence has already begun. The market cap of stablecoins has now reached $305 billion, daily settlement volume hit $3.5 trillion — almost twice that of Visa; RWA’s TVL surpassed DEXs for the first time, reaching $17 billion; leading DeFi protocols’ annual revenue hit $16.2 billion, more than the combined annual revenues of Nasdaq and CME. All these figures point in the same direction: capital is flowing into assets that are "priceable, compliant, and sustainable."

2026 may not be a full-blown bull market, but it’s unlikely to be a traditional bear market either — more like a phase where old OGs are being cleared out and the market is reshuffling. The real focus shouldn’t be on how the sentiment cycle unfolds, but on identifying which assets are being structurally increased in allocation and which are just holding on through price. That’s the key to navigating the year ahead.