#现货交易 Seeing XRP exchange balances drop to an 8-year low, I have to be honest: this is not the beginning of a positive signal, but a moment to be highly cautious.

Over two billion XRP moving out of exchanges sounds like holders are confident, but I’ve seen too many "stories" in the crypto world over the years. On the surface, it looks like holders are transferring to cold wallets and spot ETFs are attracting institutional funds, which are indeed impressive data points. But you need to think clearly: why are so many people suddenly transferring their coins out of exchanges now? Is it genuine conviction or a collective escape waiting for a certain moment?

Spot trading is most vulnerable to situations that seem like supply is tightening but may actually be reserving space for significant volatility. Ripple’s regular custody operations and ETF fund inflows—these are facts. But facts alone do not equal opportunity. Standard Chartered Bank has a target price of $8 for XRP, but the issue is they have vested interests. What I care more about is: when will the funds flowing into these institutions exit?

The biggest mistake spot traders make is seeing supply tighten and analysts being optimistic, then following the trend to buy. But the rhythm of the crypto market is: when everyone sees the same story, it’s often the time when the story is about to reverse. Macroeconomic variables and policy directions are the real decisive factors.

My advice is simple: if you really want to trade XRP in spot, ask yourself three questions first. First, can you withstand a 50% pullback? Second, do you have a clear stop-loss? Third, do you truly understand the fundamentals of this project, or are you just chasing data? Think through these three questions thoroughly before taking action, or you’ll just be feeding the whales.