Last year, SHIB surged from $0.000008 to $0.000036, a 350% increase, which indeed attracted a lot of attention. However, that market had a specific background—at the time, the crypto market was in the early stages of a bull run, with large inflows into small and mid-cap tokens. Coupled with Meme frenzy and community sentiment, new listings on exchanges also played a role in fueling the rally. In simple terms, the volatility back then was extremely high.

Now, trying to replicate that is a different challenge. First, from a technical perspective, SHIB is currently encountering resistance around $0.00003. To open up upward space, it needs to break through the key resistance at $0.000045. Second, with the market cap having already increased significantly, achieving the same percentage gain now would require much larger capital inflows than last year. More headache-inducing is that emerging Meme coins like WIF and POPCAT are diverting speculative funds, making competition fierce. Another major flaw is that SHIB largely depends on Bitcoin’s performance; if Bitcoin cannot break above $100,000, SHIB lacks independent upward momentum.

However, opportunities are not entirely absent. Institutions like JPMorgan and Bernstein predict that more capital will flow into the crypto market by 2026, which could boost the altcoin sector. If the SHIB team launches major updates—such as a sudden surge in adoption of the Shibarium Layer2 solution—it could also boost market confidence. Historically, Meme coins tend to experience a "final wave of frenzy" in the late stage of a bull market, which is a cyclical feature.

For short-term reference, the CoinCodex model predicts that on March 30, SHIB will only reach $0.00001035, which is even lower than the current level, reflecting technical weakness. Therefore, the key factors to watch are whether Bitcoin can hold above $97,000 and whether catalysts like Ethereum ETFs will emerge.

On an optimistic note: if Bitcoin breaks above $120,000 in 2026 and Meme coin funds flow back in, SHIB might have a chance to reach between $0.00005 and $0.00006, representing a 100% to 200% increase. But to replicate the craziness of a 350% rally, extreme market euphoria would be necessary. In a neutral or even bearish scenario, if the market enters a consolidation phase, SHIB could continue to decline, possibly falling below $0.00001.

Overall, the likelihood of SHIB fully replicating last year's rally in 2026 is not high. Unless several conditions are met: Bitcoin surges above $150,000, triggering a super cycle for altcoins; or the SHIB ecosystem finds a "revolutionary" use case, such as large-scale adoption in payment scenarios; or global liquidity becomes unexpectedly loose, sparking another speculative wave. The probability of all three conditions occurring simultaneously is well understood by everyone.