The recent gold market has some interesting points. Currently, the price is at 4594.99, just a little below the previous high of 4643.90. From this state, the bulls still have momentum, but in the short term, it has entered a consolidation phase, somewhat like catching a breath after a surge.

Let's look at some key levels. On the support side, the first line of defense is at 4536.60, which was a previous high during consolidation and also a good level for a pullback confirmation. Further down, an important support is at 4482.95, serving as a relay station in this rally. On the resistance side, the main level is the recent high of 4643.90; breaking through this could open up new upside space. Additionally, the 4600 psychological level always has some influence.

Looking at technical indicators, the RSI is currently at 51.65, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish zone, neither overbought (>70) nor oversold (<30). What does this mean? In the short term, there is a need for a pullback, but the bullish pattern has not been completely reversed, so there’s still hope.

From a price pattern perspective, after a rapid rise earlier, the price is now consolidating at a high level with small fluctuations. In this situation, a pullback is usually needed to confirm support. If the pullback can hold above the key level of 4536.60, there is still a chance to challenge the previous high of 4643.90. Conversely, if it breaks down effectively, the next support to watch is at 4482.95.

Next week, you should be aware of several possible scenarios.

**Scenario 1: Optimistic — Bullish continuation**— If gold finds support between 4536.60 and 4550, and RSI turns upward again, there is hope to break through the high of 4643.90 and open a new rally. In this case, targets could be in the 4700 to 4750 range. The trigger conditions are generally a weakening dollar, rising geopolitical risks, or a resurgence of safe-haven sentiment.

**Scenario 2: Neutral consolidation**— Price fluctuates within the 4536.60 to 4643.90 range, waiting for further directional signals. RSI may oscillate between 50 and 60, with bulls and bears in balance. Essentially, there’s no clear direction, just waiting for catalysts.

**Scenario 3: Cautious — Correction**— If gold effectively breaks below support at 4536.60, it could trigger a deeper correction, with potential declines toward 4482.95 or even lower at 4429.30. The trigger conditions are usually a sharp rebound in the US dollar index, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, or a rise in risk appetite.

Trading ideas: If you are bullish, you might consider entering multiple long positions in the 4536.60 to 4550 range, with stops below 4500, targeting 4643.90. If a breakout occurs, you can hold on. For bears, wait until the price effectively breaks below 4536.60 before trying short positions, with stops above 4560, targeting 4482.95.

Overall, gold is at a critical divergence point. Next week’s movement will mainly depend on whether support levels hold and how the dollar and safe-haven sentiment evolve. Both bulls and bears have opportunities, but be sure to consider your risk tolerance and target levels before acting.