The critical threshold for gold is at 4500. The recent market has been a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Looking at the long term, the central bank is still continuously buying gold, and geopolitical tensions haven't fundamentally improved. In such an environment, gold prices should continue to rise. However, the reality is that the Federal Reserve has postponed interest rate cuts to June, and a strong dollar is suppressing the upward potential of gold prices. Plus, gold has already risen for over a year, and some profit-taking and exits are starting at high levels, with overbought risks looming. The result is a situation where bulls and bears are locked in a struggle, and volatility has become the main theme this week.

On the weekly chart, it still looks quite strong, but signs of a decline are already visible. The daily chart is fluctuating within the 4500 to 4640 range, unable to break higher or lower. Two key points to watch closely: if the 4500 level holds, there’s still a chance to test higher; if it breaks below, it’s likely to fall to the 4430 to 4450 range. The 4640 level is a previous high; if it cannot break through, it will continue to oscillate.

How to operate specifically? If the price is stuck around 4620 to 4640 and cannot move up, consider shorting with a stop-loss above 4660, targeting 4550 to 4500. If you want to go long at lower levels, wait until the price stabilizes around 4500 to 4520 before entering, don’t rush to catch the bottom, and set a stop-loss below 4480. Take profits when the price reaches the 4580 to 4620 range. If 4500 is broken again and cannot recover, follow the short side with a target of 4430. Conversely, if the price breaks through 4645 and stabilizes, go long again with a target of 4700.

In volatile markets, greed is the biggest enemy. When reaching your target, take profits decisively and avoid giving back the gains already made.