#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 $BTC Technical Analysis Summary:

The hourly chart is still rubbing within a wedge, with the lows moving up but no new highs. As long as it doesn't break below the wedge, a sharp decline won't happen. For those looking to go long, wait until the 95742 level stabilizes before entering, which will improve the win rate.

The upward target should focus on the previous high and the left-side high. When it reaches around 97078-97888, consider reducing positions to lower risk, while holding the core position to bet on new highs. If the wedge breaks, stop-loss is mandatory, no negotiations.

If it breaks above 95742, it could reach 97078 to 97888. On the 4-hour chart, a break below 94500 indicates support at 93035 and 92042.

The flag pattern on the daily chart is still consolidating, which is a good sign. The line at 89199 must not be lost; if held, the bullish logic remains. Be patient and wait for the flag breakout. The longer the consolidation, the greater the chance of an upward breakout.

A head and shoulders top pattern has appeared on the 4-hour chart, not yet fully confirmed. The right shoulder is at the upper boundary of the 4-hour box at 94492. This is critical—if broken, the head and shoulders top is confirmed, and BTC around 89000 might be tested again.

The only way to invalidate this pattern is a break above the previous high on the 4-hour chart, even just exceeding by a dollar. That would eliminate the threat of the head and shoulders top. The current market is highly polarized—upward reversal or downward plunge depends entirely on Bitcoin's own choice. If the head and shoulders top truly forms, around 89000 could be a good long opportunity on the left side, but only with half a position; full position is not advised. A break below 89000 on the daily chart should trigger an immediate stop-loss.

The key is to monitor volume changes; volume confirmation is necessary to determine the direction.