#比特币价格走势 When I saw this news, I felt a bit emotional. Michael Saylor, Tom Lee, Arthur Hayes—these influential figures in the industry—had increasingly optimistic predictions for Bitcoin at the beginning of the year—$250,000, $200,000, $150,000... but none of these were realized in the end. Arthur Hayes even openly admitted that his predictions were "quite bad."

This event reminds me of an important lesson: no matter how smart someone is, they cannot predict the market accurately. The worst thing we can do when allocating assets is to follow these grand price forecasts.

What we should really reflect on is: why are so many people easily attracted to these predictions? Perhaps because humans are naturally craving certainty and hope someone can tell us the "answer." But the essence of the market is uncertainty; the more confident the predictor, the higher the risk of error.

My simple advice is: instead of chasing a specific forecast target, ask yourself—how much volatility can you tolerate? What should be the proportion of Bitcoin in your assets? Under what circumstances should you cut losses or add positions? The answers to these questions come from clear self-awareness and strict position management, not from the predictions of some influencer.

In the long run, using the right methods is more important than predicting the right price.