The race for the new Federal Reserve Chair has become a tug-of-war between policy and power. Trump favors appointing candidates with similar values, but this stance faces stiff resistance in Congress. Republican Senator Tillis explicitly stated that he would not approve any nominations until certain investigations are completed, and he might even collaborate with Democrats to block the process. Meanwhile, the market and academia are questioning: Will the independence of the central bank be compromised by the candidate selection?

The current lineup of candidates continues to reshuffle in this game. The initially favored Haskett, due to his close ties with Trump, has found himself in an awkward position, with his comments defending certain policies criticized by scholars; Waller, though recognized in political circles, remains controversial; in contrast, Waller, with a moderate distance from Trump, has gained more understanding in Congress, and his "neutrality" has become a unique advantage; Reed, while having interview opportunities, has a weaker presence.

Time has become another variable. Powell’s current term as Chair will end in May, while his board tenure extends until 2028. Trump hopes he will completely step down, but the progress of investigations could influence Powell’s decision—only if a specific candidate is appointed might he voluntarily resign. Kudlow’s statement was straightforward: if investigations are not withdrawn, the nomination process will be difficult to advance smoothly.

This tug-of-war over the independence of the central bank has already rattled global financial markets. Confidence in the dollar, the Fed’s policy direction, and crypto market sentiment—these factors are intertwined. Will Waller ultimately become Trump’s compromise choice? How would Powell’s decision to stay or leave reshape the Fed’s policy tone? These uncertainties will continue to influence market expectations.