1. The Double Game of Whales During Consolidation

WAL whales hold large funds and tend to manipulate back and forth during sideways markets. The long-short ratio drops from a high level to 0.62, and the whales simultaneously shed 21% of their long positions. This seems to indicate a shift to a pessimistic stance, but this move is often a baiting tactic—aimed at scaring retail investors into panic selling, then buying in at lower prices. Conversely, if the price suddenly rebounds slightly, it’s likely another trap to lure more longs—once retail investors chase the high, they’ll quickly be shaken out of their positions. It’s all about information asymmetry and exploiting retail traders’ emotions.

2. Using On-Chain Data to Uncover the Tactics

To avoid these traps, on-chain data is essential. When whales induce a false breakout, their core holdings remain stable; they are mainly reducing leverage on long positions. Meanwhile, looking at 24-hour trading, retail investors still maintain a net buy of $16.9K per hour, indicating that a full-scale crash has not occurred. When baiting for a rally, the signals differ—whales are replenishing small, short-term positions without showing signs of long-term accumulation. When prices rise, trading volume tends to shrink. Both scenarios should be assessed against the support and resistance levels of the 99-day EMA.

3. Retail Investors’ Countermeasures

The core strategy can be summarized in eight words: prioritize signals, don’t be driven by emotions. When facing a false breakout, accumulate in stages around the support level of $0.1573 and the 99-day EMA ($0.1557)—hold firm without selling. If a false breakout occurs at the resistance level of $0.1613, do not chase; if the price breaks below the midline at $0.1584 with declining volume, immediately reduce positions and cut losses. Also, monitor the wallets of major whales, and only follow when their holdings are concentrated and trading volume matches.

4. The Key to Long-Term Stability

While short-term gains can be made by following whale movements, ultimately, risk management is paramount. Strictly follow your plan and avoid changing strategies due to volatility—that’s the secret to long-term profitability.