#数字资产市场动态 $FRAX

The US debt crisis and the new role of crypto assets: Systemic risks behind a $4 trillion deficit

The economic policy mix in 2025 is reshaping the global financial landscape. Tax cuts, tariffs, and interest rate reductions are being implemented simultaneously—initially appearing as short-term stimulus, but actually tearing open a massive fiscal hole—$4 trillion in deficits over the next decade. This is not just a numbers game; it’s a strategic gamble that directly impacts the credibility of the US dollar.

How severe are the policy effects? Permanent personal income tax cuts, corporate tax rates slashed to 15%, and a federal budget shortfall of $4 trillion over ten years, averaging a $400 billion annual gap. How much can reciprocal tariff policies cover? Only an additional $120 billion in tariff revenue, far below the expenditure gap. The result is that American households’ annual purchasing power shrinks by $1,700, and government layoffs and austerity measures are barely making a dent.

Lowering interest rates has become the last lifeline, but this lifeline itself is very hot. At the federal level, while fueling inflation, there are loud calls to cut rates, attempting to ease debt repayment pressure by lowering US debt yields. There are even efforts to reshape the independence of the central bank, applying pressure on the Federal Reserve. But US Treasury bonds have already crossed warning thresholds, and the massive deficits are eroding the credibility of the dollar as an international reserve currency. Moody’s and other rating agencies have downgraded US sovereign credit ratings, and the de-dollarization wave is accelerating.

The spillover effects of this deficit pressure are driving a subtle shift. The Trump administration’s stance on from criticism to inclusion in national strategic reserves, and even attempts to peg dollar stablecoins to US debt, are essentially seeking new financing channels and credit guarantees. Crypto assets are gradually evolving from tools opposing the dollar system to new containers carrying dollar liquidity overflow. Meanwhile, governments are aggressively promoting AI and restructuring industrial policies, betting that economic growth can outpace the deficit growth.

The key question is: when the US treats itself as a giant corporation and uses cryptocurrencies as chips, what is the ultimate outcome of this deficit game? If economic growth outpaces the deficit, dollar hegemony may temporarily stabilize; if inflation remains high and debt collapses, a dollar credit crisis could directly trigger a crypto market crash. The fate of and the dollar system has become inextricably linked.

At this moment, what is your view on the impact of this $4 trillion deficit on the global financial order?