#比特币价格走势 Seeing this set of data, I have a familiar feeling. In the years 2024 to 2025, every time ETH breaks through $4,000, those ancient chips with a cost basis of only $378 start to flicker, and a few months later, the price peaks in stages—this pattern has repeated several times. After the massive $1 billion cash-out on June 10, a correction followed; the $500 million escape in September and October followed the same rhythm.

This is not a coincidence but the deepest game among market participants. Those who entered around 2017 with a cost basis below $400 have long solidified their psychological accounts and risk preferences. When they see tenfold or twentyfold gains in front of them, the impulse to cash out will override their long-term holding beliefs. More importantly, their large-scale exits often become turning points in market sentiment—retail investors follow the trend, leverage gets liquidated, liquidity dries up, and the price enters a period of oscillation.

This historical repetition tells me one thing: every breakthrough at a certain price level is not the end but the start of a new game. The ancient whales still hold 20 million ETH; every profit-taking they do is a market "clearing." Instead of chasing highs to take over the position, it’s better to observe the flow of these large chips, which is often more honest than any technical indicator. What I’ve learned over the past decade is: listen to history, not fight against it.