Prediction markets are now actively pricing in the Musk-Altman legal dispute. On Polymarket, odds suggest a 59% probability favoring Musk's position in the case against OpenAI.

Musk's core argument centers on contribution and contract modification. He points out that his early-stage funding and founding involvement were instrumental in building OpenAI's initial value. The subsequent pivot from nonprofit to for-profit structure, he argues, fundamentally altered the original agreement—essentially changing the terms of the deal mid-stream.

This isn't just courtroom drama; it's becoming a test case for how Web3 prediction markets assess high-stakes disputes. The shifting odds reflect market participants weighing evidence and legal arguments in real time, providing a real-time consensus layer on case outcomes.

The implications extend beyond this single dispute, touching on questions about founder contributions, organizational structure changes, and contractual obligations in tech ventures. Watching how prediction markets track this will reveal what the crowd sees as the strongest legal position.